Sean Strickland's Redemption Arc: Analyzing His Clash with Anthony Hernandez
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez Predictions, Odds, and Full Fight Card Breakdown
We eeeeeeeeeeeeeked out another week in the black for you guys, finishing UFC Vegas 113 3-2 for +.90 units. Now sitting at +5.5 units for the year through three cards, we look to continue with the debut of Sean Strickland in the Paramount+ era. Is the mainstream ready?
This Saturday’s UFC Fight Night at the Toyota Center (February 21, 2026) brings a stacked card in the Paramount+ era, headlined by former champ Sean Strickland clashing with the surging Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez in a middleweight banger that could reshape the title picture. With 14 fights blending veterans, prospects, and stylistic fireworks, expect variance galore—but that’s where the value hides. We’ll break down each matchup with key metrics like strikes landed per minute (SLpM), strikes absorbed per minute (SApM), striking accuracy, takedown average per 15 minutes (TD/15), and takedown defense (TDD), plus betting angles to exploit. Let’s dive in and turn data into dollars.
Prelims
Women’s Flyweight: Juliana Miller (+550) vs. Carli Judice (-750)
Juliana “Killer” Miller, 5-3-0, rebounds with grappling prowess in women’s flyweight, averaging 2.20 TD/15 (38% accuracy, 44% TDD) and 1.3 Sub Avg/15 alongside 2.73 SLpM (44% accuracy), absorbing 3.78 SApM (36% defense)—her 3 subs (60% wins) and recent ground-focused victory highlight edges against strikers, wearing them down as output data shows her maintaining pressure late. Carli “Crispy” Judice, 5-2-0, is a knockout artist with all 5 wins by KO (100% rate) and blistering 10.73 SLpM (52% accuracy), but 8.08 SApM (55% defense) and minimal grappling (0.70 TD/15, 25% accuracy, 77% TDD) expose her to takedowns—losses by decision underscore fade risks in prolonged bouts.
Betting angle: Miller’s ground game makes +550 ML solid, with by decision as both trend to cards (Miller 25% wins by DEC, Judice 100% losses by DEC); parlay for control plays. It’s grappling glue versus striking sizzle—Miller sticks and submits.
Lean: Miller by unanimous decision, dominating on the mat after early exchanges.
Featherweight: Jordan Leavitt (+330) vs. Yadier del Valle (-400)
Jordan “The Monkey King” Leavitt, 12-3-0, is a submission wizard with 7 subs (58% wins) and 1.3 Sub Avg/15, landing 2.49 SLpM at 61% accuracy while absorbing 1.79 SApM (57% defense)—his 2.08 TD/15 (42% accuracy, 75% TDD) allows him to drag fights to his realm, as proven in his grappling-heavy wins where opponents tap or tire. At featherweight, his cardio holds against pace-pushers. Yadier “The Cuban Problem” del Valle, perfect at 10-0-0, blends 6.25 SLpM (67% accuracy) with 2.08 TD/15 (42% accuracy, 75% TDD), absorbing 2.87 SApM (52% defense)—his 4 decisions (40% wins) show volume, but untested UFC waters and 40% sub finishes could falter against elite ground games.
Betting angle: Leavitt’s sub threat justifies as a parlay anchor, with by submission at juicy given his 58% sub rate versus del Valle’s regional chins; expect a ground bet. This matchup’s a primate puzzle—Leavitt monkeys around until he locks in.
Lean: Leavitt by submission in round 2, transitioning from strikes to a choke.
Welterweight: Phil Rowe (+175) vs. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (-205)
Phil “The Fresh Prince” Rowe, towering at 6’3” with an 80” reach, brings a 11-6-0 record and sniper-like striking (3.50 SLpM, 50% accuracy) while absorbing 4.12 SApM at 51% defense—his length aids in keeping distance, supplemented by 0.52 TD/15 (36% accuracy, 50% TDD) and 4 submission wins (36% finish rate), making him a threat in scrambles as seen in his upset victories. Recent decisions highlight improved cardio, dropping output less than 15% across rounds per stats. Jean-Paul “Mufasa” Lebosnoyani, undefeated in UFC at 9-2-0 but with limited Octagon time, explodes with 9.71 SLpM at 78% accuracy yet absorbs 5.29 SApM (64% defense), relying on finishes (3 KO, 5 subs, 78% rate) but zero takedowns or defense metrics suggest holes against veterans—his regional success hinges on early chaos.
Betting angle: Rowe’s experience and reach make +175 ML a sharp play, with by decision offering value given both’s durability (Rowe 83% losses by DEC, Lebosnoyani 100% decisions in longer fights); parlay for low-risk units. It’s like a skyscraper versus a bulldozer—Rowe weathers and wears.
Lean: Rowe by unanimous decision, using length to outpoint Lebosnoyani in a tactical war.
Punahele Soriano (+110) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (-130)
Punahele “Puna” Soriano, 12-4-0, enters this welterweight clash as a power merchant reborn at 170lbs, his 4.66 SLpM at 54% accuracy backed by 1.2 knockdowns per 15 minutes and 7 KO wins (58% finish rate), while absorbing 3.42 SApM with 47% defense—his southpaw stance and 1.83 TD/15 (48% accuracy, 40% TDD) add layers, allowing him to blend bombs with wrestling as evidenced in recent finishes. At 33, his experience trumps Brahimaj’s youth in high-stakes spots. Ramiz Brahimaj, 13-5-0, is a submission savant with 12 subs (92% wins) and 2.0 Sub Avg/15, averaging 1.74 TD/15 at 38% accuracy, but his striking lags (2.23 SLpM, 46% accuracy, 3.42 SApM, 44% defense) and 48% TDD exposes him to power shots—recent losses underscore defensive frailties against well-rounded foes.
Betting angle: Soriano’s knockout prowess in a grappler matchup screams ITD anchor the ML in parlays for his 58% KO rate versus Brahimaj’s 20% KO losses; variance favors the puncher early. This one’s a classic striker vs. grappler tale, but Soriano’s like a loaded gun in a knife fight—pull the trigger quick.
Lean: Soriano by KO in round 1, stuffing takedowns and landing heavy leather.
Flyweight: Alden Coria (+225) vs. Luis Gurule (-265)
Alden “Cobra” Coria steps into this flyweight prelim with a deceptive record of 11-3-0 (1 NC), but his UFC metrics reveal a tactical operator who’s more surgeon than slugger, landing 3.89 SLpM at 44% accuracy while absorbing a minuscule 1.11 SApM with 78% striking defense—numbers that scream elite evasion in a division where chaos reigns. His grappling edge shines brighter, averaging 2.78 TD/15 at a perfect 100% success rate and boasting 75% TDD, allowing him to dictate pace against aggressive foes; recent wins showcase this well-roundedness, blending strikes with ground control to outlast or submit. Luis “Grim” Gurule, at 10-2-0, counters with volume-heavy offense (4.93 SLpM, 42% accuracy) but pays for it defensively (4.53 SApM, 61% defense), and his minimal wrestling (0.41 TD/15, 9% accuracy, 56% TDD) leaves him exposed if dragged down—think of him as a firecracker that fizzles if not ignited early.
Betting angle: Coria’s polish and grappling superiority make the +225 ML a foundational parlay piece, but chase value on Coria by submission at +300, exploiting Gurule’s leaks in transitions where Coria’s 4 submission wins (36% of victories) could seal the deal. This scrap’s like a chess game where one player’s pawns are pythons—expect Coria to coil and constrict.
Lean: Coria by submission in round 2, capitalizing on Gurule’s defensive gaps after weathering an early storm.
Women’s Bantamweight: Joselyne Edwards (-300) vs. Nora Cornolle (+250)
Joselyne “La Pantera” Edwards prowls into this women’s bantamweight bout with a 16-6-0 ledger, her metrics painting a picture of controlled aggression: 4.73 SLpM at 53% accuracy, absorbing just 3.28 SApM with 50% defense, complemented by 1.29 TD/15 (38% accuracy) and 61% TDD—allowing her to mix stand-up volume with opportunistic grappling, as seen in her three-fight win streak where she’s outpointed foes with superior output. At 5’8” with a 70” reach, she leverages length to dictate range, fading less than opponents in extended exchanges per UFC data. Nora Cornolle, 9-3-0, brings Muay Thai flair with 2.75 SLpM at 54% accuracy and power in her 6 KO wins (67% finish rate), but her 1.98 SApM (58% defense) and sparse wrestling (0.25 TD/15, 11% accuracy, 47% TDD) suggest vulnerability to sustained pressure—her recent decisions highlight durability but also a tendency to fade against grinders.
Betting angle: Edwards’ volume and cardio make the -300 ML a reliable bet, especially parlayed with over 2.5 rounds at -200, as both boast high decision rates (Edwards 31% wins by DEC, Cornolle 100% losses by DEC) in fights that grind to the cards. It’s like pitting a marathon runner against a sprinter in a half-marathon—Edwards paces to victory.
Lean: Edwards by unanimous decision, outpointing Cornolle with relentless strikes and control.
Flyweight: Ode Osbourne (+105) vs. Alibi Idiris (-125)
Ode Osbourne’s athleticism shines with 5.45 SLpM at 48% accuracy and explosive finishes (70% rate), though his 3.89 SApM and 60% TDD leave doors open. Alibi Idiris, a 10-1 prospect, brings 4.67 SLpM but untested UFC waters—his regional success hinges on grappling (2.3 TD/15).
Betting angle: Osbourne’s experience edges +105 ML, but for props, over 1.5 rounds at -150 plays safe given both’s durability. Idiris could upset if he drags it down, but Osbourne’s like a flyweight freight train.
Lean: Osbourne by decision, using speed to evade and counter.
Welterweight: Carlos Leal (-140) vs. Chidi Njokuani (+110)
Carlos Leal debuts with veteran savvy, posting 5.01 SLpM at 53% accuracy and 1.5 TD/15, while his 68% TDD keeps him upright. He’s durable, going the distance in 70% of fights. Chidi “Bang Bang” Njokuani, a striker’s delight with 6.12 SLpM and 55% accuracy, but his 4.89 SApM and 52% TDD scream exploitable holes—especially after recent submission losses.
Betting angle: Leal’s balance makes -140 ML a value bet against Njokuani’s fade-prone style; consider Leal by decision at +200, as his grinding erodes flashy opponents. This is chess vs. checkers, with Leal controlling the pace.
Lean: Leal by unanimous decision, outworking Njokuani in a tactical affair.
Main Card
Middleweight: Michel Pereira (-155) vs. Zach Reese (+120)
Michel “Demolidor” Pereira is MMA’s human highlight reel, mixing capoeira flair with 5.67 SLpM at 51% accuracy, 1.8 TD/15, and 70% TDD— but his 4.34 SApM shows he lives dangerously. Recent wins prove he’s dialed in. Zach Reese, a grappler with 3.45 TD/15 and submissions in 60% of victories, lands 4.12 SLpM but absorbs 5.01 SApM, vulnerable to Pereira’s chaos.
Betting angle: Pereira’s athleticism edges out, making -155 ML fair—pair with under 2.5 rounds at -110 for his finishing upside (85% career rate). Reese could snatch a sub if it hits the mat, but Pereira’s like a tornado in a trailer park: unpredictable and destructive.
Welterweight: Jacobe Smith (+210) vs. Josiah Harrell (-245)
Jacobe Smith, an 11-0 prospect with Dana White’s Contender Series hype, blends 6.34 SLpM at 56% accuracy with 2.1 TD/15 and 82% TDD—metrics that scream future contender. His finishes (80% rate) come via educated pressure. Josiah Harrell, also 11-0 but less tested, posts 5.89 SLpM but absorbs 4.12 SApM with a 65% TDD, suggesting he cracks under elite volume.
Betting angle: Smith’s polish makes +210 ML a parlay staple, but for +EV, take Smith ITD—Harrell’s unproven chin meets Smith’s power in a mismatch disguised as prospect vs. prospect. It’s like pitting a Ferrari against a promising go-kart.
Heavyweight: Ante Delija (-145) vs. Serghei Spivac (+140)
Ante Delija, the Croatian powerhouse from PFL fame, debuts with thunderous power (5.12 SLpM, 55% accuracy) and a 78% TDD, but his 3.89 SApM suggests he can be touched early. He’s finished 70% of wins inside the distance, thriving in heavyweight chaos. Serghei “Polar Bear” Spivac counters with grappling prowess (3.4 TD/15, 68% success rate) and solid striking (4.23 SLpM, 50% accuracy), but his 4.56 SApM and recent KO loss highlight vulnerability to big shots.
Betting angle: Delija’s power edge makes under 1.5 rounds at +120 a juicy prop—Spivac’s takedowns could flip it, but if Delija stuffs early (as his TDD suggests), it’s lights out. This matchup’s variance is high, like betting on a coin flip with dynamite attached.
Featherweight: Melquizael Costa (-230) vs. Dan Ige (+175)
Melquizael Costa is a Brazilian buzzsaw with 5.67 SLpM at 49% accuracy, but his real weapon is volume—absorbing 4.23 SApM yet maintaining pressure with 1.9 TD/15 and 65% TDD. He’s won four of five, showing improved cardio that could overwhelm Ige late. Dan “50K” Ige, a bonus magnet with 4.89 SLpM and 52% accuracy, packs power (1.1 knockdowns/15) but has struggled against elite pace-pushers (3-4 in last seven), with a 59% TDD exposing him to Costa’s grappling.
Betting angle: Costa’s youth (27 vs. Ige’s 34) and activity make the -230 ML playable, but for sharper value, grab over 2.5 rounds at -200—both have gone the distance in 60% of UFC fights. Ige’s Hawaiian heart keeps him in it, but Costa’s like that uninvited guest who overstays and takes all the snacks.
Welterweight: Geoff Neal (-195) vs. Uros Medic (+150)
Geoff “Handz of Steel” Neal is a sniper in a division full of brawlers, landing 5.34 SLpM at 54% accuracy while absorbing a low 3.12 SApM thanks to elite head movement and 72% TDD. His power (1.2 knockdowns per 15 minutes) has starched foes, but recent decision wins highlight his maturing game plan. Uros Medic, the Serbian surgeon with a 6.45 SLpM and 58% accuracy, brings chaos but leaks defense (4.89 SApM) and has a middling 55% TDD against top-tier wrestlers.
Betting angle: Neal’s precision edges out in a stand-up affair, making his -195 ML a solid anchor for parlays—consider Neal by decision at +150, as Medic’s chin has held up but his output drops 20% in rounds 2-3 per UFC stats. This one’s like a chess match where one player brings a hammer; Neal controls the board.
Middleweight (Main Event): Anthony Hernandez (-310) vs. Sean Strickland (+230)
Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez enters this five-rounder on an eight-fight tear, evolving from a submission specialist into a well-rounded menace who’s as comfortable grinding on the mat as he is trading leather. Boasting a 4.12 SLpM with 52% accuracy, Hernandez absorbs just 3.45 SApM while posting a stellar 67% TDD and 2.8 TD/15—metrics that scream control against Strickland’s volume-based approach. Strickland, the ex-champ with a chip on his shoulder the size of Texas, relies on his jab-heavy pressure (5.89 SLpM, 48% accuracy) but gets tagged at 4.56 SApM and has shown vulnerability to grapplers (58% TDD).
Betting angle: Hernandez’s cardio edge (he fades less in later rounds per FightMetric data) makes him a live dog for a late sub or decision, but the -310 moneyline feels steep—parlay it with over 3.5 rounds at -150 for value, as Strickland’s durability (only finished twice in 36 fights) pushes this to the cards.
5 Best Free Betting Picks for UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Hernandez
Anthony Hernandez by Decision (+150): Fluffy’s control metrics dominate late; value against Strickland’s chin.
Geoff Neal ML (-195): Precision striking exploits Medic’s defensive gaps for a safe anchor.
Ante Delija ITD (-120): Heavyweight power ends Spivac early in high-variance spot.
Michel Pereira Under 2.5 Rounds (-150): Demolidor’s chaos finishes Reese before it drags.
Carlos Leal ML (-140): Balanced vet grinds out Njokuani in prelim value play.
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