UFC Fam,

We kept our head above water this week, as we finished the card 3-3 (50%) for -0.01 units. Below are a few thoughts on each fight we were on and some spots I’m looking at for next week that could be on the move throughout the week.

Prelims

Win - Joselyn Edwards (-130 at Barstool Sportsbook) to risk 2 units

We won this fight via split decision, but it was never that close as Edwards landed 25% more significant strikes and controlled on the ground for +1:40 seconds, in addition to getting the only takedown of the fight. Our numbers didn’t lie here.

Loss - Rafael Alves (+190 at Fanduel) to risk .5 unit

This was a slugfest out of the gates just like Dober wanted, and we were on the wrong side as I expected we’d be if Alves let him. Alves controlled on the ground for +2:17 before this KO/TKO, and Dober’s chin is amongst the best in the UFC.

Loss - Matthew Semelsberger (-155 at DraftKings) to risk 2 units

Hell of a showing here from Morono, and his best overall performance since joining the UFC. Semelsberger dominated on the ground landing 100% of his takedowns and controlling for +2:14, but a striking master class from Morono. Should have risked fewer units here, but we adjust..

Main Card

Win - Sergei Pavlovich (-115 at BetMGM) to win 1 unit

Win - Sergei Pavlovich - Inside the Distance (+125 at DraftKings) to risk 1 units

A lot of noise immediately following this one about an early stoppage, but at 265+ pounds you’re not going to see the refs let these guys take too many unguarded headshots. As I said in the write-up, I think this is the beginning of the end for Lewis against the higher-tier guys.

Loss - Amanda Nunes - Inside the Distance (-135 at DraftKings) to win 1 unit

What. A. War.

I knew this bet was in trouble when Nunes landed the most knockdowns in a single fight in women’s UFC history, and Pena still kept coming forward. 99/100 fighters don’t make that final bell.

Not sure I’ve ever seen a box score this lopsided without a finish, but that’s just how it goes sometimes..

Quick Lookahead to UFC Vegas 59: Santos vs. Hill

Still need to dig into each, but here’s what my model is showing as edges this week. Full card picks and write-ups coming Wednesday.

Priscila Cachoeira +145

Mayra Bueno Silva -115

Josh Qunlian -210

As a reminder, all tracked plays can be found here.