UFC 278: Quick Recap & Lookahead (-6.0 units)

Finished the week 1-4 on straight bets for -6.0 units

I’ll just start off with the wise words of the late great Omar Little who summed it up best.

With all seriousness, losing sucks, but it’s part of betting. Certainly on a racket like MMA where all it takes is a split second to not go our way.

Let’s take a closer look at where things went wrong as we move on to the next.

Win - Amir Albazi to Win Inside the Distance (+165 at BetOnline.ag) to risk 1.65 units

We started off the night flushing this one, as Albazi dominated from the opening bell and got us there in the very first round. This guy is going to be a serious problem in the flyweight division and this won’t be the last time you hear me talk about him.

Loss - AJ Fletcher (-150 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units

Loosa’s striking in this fight was something I never would’ve seen coming, and apparently, Fletcher didn’t either as he got worked throughout this fight. He largely lost on the ground too, as Loosa dominated that aspect with 10x control time and 2x takedowns.

Loss - Wu Yanan (+120 at Caesars Sportsbook) to risk 1 unit

This one got moved up to the main card and Yanan was clearly overmatched from the start as Pudilova was much improved since her last stint in the UFC. No urgency whatsoever from Yanan.

Loss - Paulo Costa Inside the Distance (-160 at BetOnline.ag) to risk 3 units

Costa dominated this fight from a metrics standpoint winning the strikes battle by 2x and the control on the ground battle by 10x but just couldn’t put him away. Even in his later years, Rockhold is a savage and was able to hold on for all three rounds.

Loss - Kamaru Usman by KO/TKO or Submission (+230 at FanDuel) to risk 1 unit

Should have laid off here with Edward’s propensity to drag fights out, but played it small anyway. Usman finally paid the price for a lack of urgency in finishing guys, and don’t think we see that mistake from him again.

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Looking Ahead

The UFC has a rare week off this week ahead of UFC Paris the weekend of September 3rd. In the meantime, if you’re into college football, I’ll be Tweeting out some Week 0 plays this week for those interested.

As a reminder, all tracked plays can be found here.