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UFC 285: Head-to-Head Pick vs. @NeverHedge (Bonus)
I ran a guest feature from Kyle Miller with Never Hedge back on UFC 283, and after comparing notes ahead of UFC 285, we’re running it back here with a dedicated post. While I’m a fan of Kyle’s work, that doesn’t mean we can’t disagree in spots, just as we do in a middleweight clash scheduled for the prelims on Saturday.
Let’s jump into it.
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Derek Brunson vs. Driscus du Plessis
Excerpt from this week’s premium card
“Currently ranked #10, du Plessis will have to get through #5 Brunson, and as the market has already agreed with, I think we see just that.
Outside of an 89% takedown defense for Brunson, du Plessis holds the edges across the board, most notably in significant strikes landed per minute (2x), submission averages (2x), striking accuracy, and takedown accuracy.
At 29, du Plessis also holds a massive advantage in terms of wear and youth and is also the much more active fighter having fought twice in the past seven months. Having not fought in more than a year, a second-round loss to Jared Cannonier, the 39-year-old Brunson will be dealing with some ring rust on Saturday as well.
Featuring a pair of top 10 middleweights, this fight would be a main card bout if the UFC thought it had much of a chance of being competitive. Known for his fast starts with just one of his 20 professional fights going the distance, look for du Plessis to make quick work of the social media sensation Brunson.”
Johnny’s Pick: Driscus du Plessis (-225 at BetUS) to risk 2.25 units
What is up guys?! Kyle with Never Hedge here to give you the upset play of the night. For those who aren’t familiar I have a newsletter where I give my tape study for every fight on the card (UFC,PFL, Bellator), I also give out my betting cards all 100 percent FREE! I also run a discord with an active community talking all things MMA, Gambling, sports and even some other hobbies! Hope to see you guys sign up, links at the bottom! Now for that pick….
Dricus is a fan friendly fighter. He has the look, he has the style and he just goes for it man. Dricus is also a guy I’ve been looking to fade since he’s come to the UFC. His striking is elementary. He sprints forward, chin up, winging heavy punches. He is there to he hit. His cardio is not the best. His submissions are great, but he’s not the most technical wrestler. He uses his strength and athleticism to overcome technique. He did not impress me at all against Till and he will not be able to rag doll Brunson.
Brunson has fought far superior competition and should have a grappling and cardio advantage in this fight. Brunson is being disrespected with this line and I expect him to weather the storm early. Get a takedown off of Dricus blitzing in wildly and beat up Dricus on the ground. Would not be shocked to see a Brunson finish. Brunson at +195 is the play dog of the night!
Kyle’s Pick: Derek Brunson (+195 at BetUS) vs Dricus Du Plessis
*All odds as of the day of posting.