UFC 325: Volk vs. Lopes 2: Rematch Revenge or Sydney Slaughter?
UFC 325 Predictions, Odds, and Full Fight Card Breakdown
We started off this new era of the UFC with a winning night last week, going 2-3 but finishing +3.5 units thanks to nailing Gaethje by decision at +550. On to the next….
The Octagon touches down in Sydney for UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, and if you thought the first fight was a barnburner, the rematch in “The Great’s” backyard is tracking to be an absolute explosion. We aren’t just looking at a title fight; we’re looking at the coronation of the Paramount+ era and a card deep enough to make your local bookie sweat. From the featherweight gold at the top to a “Road to UFC” finale on the prelims, Sydney is about to become the epicenter of the MMA universe. Whether you’re here for the betting value or just to see if Tai Tuivasa can finally land a “Bam Bam” special, we’ve got the full statistical breakdown to get you ahead of the curve.
Early Prelims
BreakdownFlyweight: Namsrai Batbayar (-142) vs Aaron Tau (+120)
Kicking off the night in the flyweight division, we’ve got Namsrai Batbayar, a 9-1 Mongolian prospect from Road to UFC, facing New Zealand’s Aaron Tau, who’s 11-1 and riding high on regional dominance. Batbayar enters with a well-rounded game, boasting a 67% takedown defense and 4.2 significant strikes per minute (SLpM) in his recent outings, where he’s gone 4-1 in his last five, including a submission win over a common opponent in a regional circuit grappler both faced early in their careers—Batbayar tapped him in Round 1, while Tau went the distance for a decision. Recent form favors Batbayar, who’s finished three of his last four, showing improved ground control with 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Tau, however, is no slouch, with 55% striking accuracy and a knack for volume (5.1 SLpM), but his takedown defense sits at 60%, which could be exploited. No direct common opponents beyond that early shared foe, but Tau’s losses come from superior wrestlers, and Batbayar’s history suggests he mixes levels effectively. This feels like Batbayar’s fight to control on the mat, but Tau’s cardio could push it to a decision if he stuffs early shots. Edge to Batbayar in a grinder.
Bantamweight: Sulangrangbo (-258) vs Lawrence Lui (+210)
Next up, China’s Sulangrangbo (10-3) clashes with Lawrence Lui (7-1) in a Road to UFC bantamweight tilt that’s flipped on the odds boards recently—Lui opened as favorite but now sits as underdog after suspicious line movement. Sulangrangbo’s recent form is solid at 4-1 in his last five, with finishes in three, leveraging 3.8 SLpM and 45% takedown accuracy. Lui, the Canadian, is on a 6-1 run, but his lone loss was to a wrestler with similar metrics to Sulangrangbo (both average 2 takedowns per fight). Common opponents? Both have faced Asian circuit vets; Sulangrangbo knocked out a guy Lui submitted, highlighting Sulangrangbo’s power edge (1.2 knockdowns per 15 minutes vs. Lui’s 0.8). Lui’s striking defense is impressive at 62%, but he absorbs 4.5 strikes per minute when pressured. History shows Sulangrangbo thrives in chaos, while Lui prefers control. If Sulangrangbo dictates pace, he ends it early; otherwise, Lui could grind a decision. Smart money on Sulangrangbo exploiting the grappling gap.
Featherweight: Sebastian Szalay (-125) vs Keiichiro Nakamura (+105)
Road to UFC featherweight finals pit Sebastian Szalay (10-1) against Japan’s Keiichiro Nakamura (7-1). Szalay’s recent form is scorching—5-0 in his last five, all finishes, with 5.6 SLpM and 70% striking accuracy. Nakamura, 4-1 lately, brings grappling prowess (2.3 submissions per 15 minutes) but has struggled against volume strikers like Szalay. Common opponents include a DWCS alum both beat; Szalay KO’d him in Round 1, Nakamura took a decision, showing Szalay’s finishing threat. Szalay’s takedown defense is elite at 85%, neutralizing Nakamura’s 40% accuracy. History favors Szalay’s kickboxing base, honed in European circuits, over Nakamura’s judo roots. Expect Szalay to keep it standing and outpoint or stop Nakamura late. Close, but Szalay’s form wins out.
Lightweight: Dom Mar Fan (-148) vs Sang Uk Kim (+124)
Closing the early prelims, Hong Kong’s Dom Mar Fan (8-2) meets South Korea’s Sang Uk Kim (13-3) in Road to UFC lightweight action. Mar Fan’s 4-1 recent streak features 4.9 SLpM and 1.8 takedowns per 15 minutes, with a submission win over a grappler Kim also faced—Mar Fan tapped him quicker. Kim’s form is 3-2, with losses to superior strikers (absorbing 5.2 SApM). Kim’s history shows vulnerability to pressure, while Mar Fan’s 55% defense keeps him safe. No other direct commons, but Mar Fan’s versatility edges this. Look for Mar Fan to mix strikes and grapples for a decision.
Prelims
Featherweight: Kaan Ofli (+170) vs Yizha (-200)
Australian Kaan Ofli (12-4-1) welcomes China’s Yizha (26-5) to the Octagon. Ofli’s recent form is mixed at 3-2, but he’s durable with 60% takedown defense and 4.2 SLpM. Yizha, on a 7-1 tear, averages 5.3 SLpM and 1.5 knockdowns per 15 minutes, finishing five straight. Common opponents: Both beat regional featherweights; Yizha KO’d one Ofli decisioned. Yizha’s power (knockdown rate +50% over Ofli) and accuracy (52%) make him dangerous, but Ofli’s UFC experience (1-1) could help. Yizha’s history in long fights favors him in Sydney’s altitude. Pick Yizha by late TKO.
Welterweight: Jonathan Micallef (-155) vs Oban Elliott (+130)
Aussie Jonathan Micallef (8-1) faces Wales’ Oban Elliott (12-3). Micallef’s 5-0 streak includes 4.8 SLpM and 65% accuracy, with recent KO wins. Elliott, 3-2 lately, brings grappling (2 takedowns per fight) but 45% defense. Common opponents: Elliott lost to a striker Micallef beat similarly. Micallef’s form and home crowd edge this for a decision win.
Middleweight: Jacob Malkoun (-360) vs Torrez Finney (+285)
Local Jacob Malkoun (8-3) vs undefeated Torrez Finney (11-0). Malkoun’s 3-2 UFC run shows 1.9 takedowns per 15 and 55% defense. Finney’s finishes (9 of 11) come from power (1.4 knockdowns), but against lesser competition. No commons, but Finney’s recent form vs Malkoun’s experience favors the Aussie by control.
Middleweight: Cam Rowston (+200) vs Cody Brundage (-245)
Rowston’s 4-1 form features volume (5.1 SLpM), Brundage’s 2-3 includes grappling edges. Common opponents: Brundage KO’d a guy Rowston decisioned. Brundage’s takedowns win this.
Light Heavyweight: Junior Tafa (+215) vs Billy Elekana (-255)
Tafa’s power (1.8 knockdowns) but 1-3 recent. Elekana’s 5-0 streak with 70% finish rate.
Main Card
Lightweight - Quillan Salkilld (-210) vs. Jamie Mullarkey
An all-Aussie showdown. Salkilld is the new blood, while Mullarkey is the seasoned vet who has been in countless “Fight of the Night” wars. Mullarkey is known for his durability and volume, but he’s been chinny lately. Salkilld is a balanced prospect with slick grappling and a “never-back-down” attitude.
This feels like a changing of the guard. Salkilld is younger, faster, and hasn’t accumulated the miles Mullarkey has. Expect a back-and-forth war where Salkilld’s athleticism carries him to a decision.
Heavyweight - Tai Tuivasa (+190) vs. Tallison Teixeira (-230)
Tai Tuivasa (14-8) is on a five-fight skid, and the UFC is throwing him a literal giant in the 6’8” Tallison Teixeira (8-1). This is do-or-die for “Bam Bam” in front of his home crowd. Teixeira is coming off a TKO loss to Derrick Lewis, proving that even at 6’8”, his chin can be found. Tuivasa still has the fastest hands in the heavyweight division, but his defensive grappling remains a liability.
The Sydney crowd will be deafening. If Tai can get inside the reach of Teixeira, he only needs one clean connection. However, Teixeira’s reach advantage is staggering. If the Brazilian stays disciplined, he wins. If he gets lured into a brawl, the “shoey” returns to Sydney
Lightweight - Rafael Fiziev (+102) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-122)
The striking nerds are salivating over this one. Rafael “Ataman” Fiziev (12-3) is one of the most technical kickboxers in the sport. He faces the surging Mauricio Ruffy (11-1), a man who fights like he’s in a 1990s arcade game. Fiziev lands with 51% accuracy and has an elite 90% takedown defense. Ruffy is the wildcard; he’s been starching people on the regional scene and looked like a world-beater in his UFC debut.
This is a massive step up for Ruffy. Fiziev has shared the cage with Gaethje, Poirier, and Gamrot. While Ruffy has the “X-factor” and heavy hands, Fiziev’s experience in five-round wars and his ability to counter-strike at a high velocity should be the difference. We like the favorite here to stop the hype train.
Lightweight - Dan Hooker (-110) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (-110)
Co-Main Event
This is a “Violence of the Year” candidate on paper. Dan “The Hangman” Hooker (24-13) is the personification of grit, while Benoit “God of War” Saint Denis (16-3) is a human wrecking ball. BSD is a finishing machine, with a 100% finish rate in his wins. He lands 5.53 strikes per minute but absorbs a lot of damage (5.20) in return. Hooker, the taller man with a 75-inch reach, will look to utilize his knees and long-range striking to catch BSD as he crashes the pocket.
Hooker is coming off a tough loss to Arman Tsarukyan, but his wins over Mateusz Gamrot and Jalin Turner prove he can still hang with the elite. Saint Denis is looking for his fourth straight win. This fight hinges on whether Hooker can survive the first 7 minutes. If he can, the “Hangman” usually takes over. If BSD can secure the clinch early, it’s a long night (or a short one) for the Kiwi.
Featherweight Title Alexander Volkanovski (-245) vs. Diego Lopes (+205)
Main Event
Volkanovski’s baseline is still terrifying: 6.18 SLpM, 56% striking accuracy, 3.36 SApM, and 58% striking defense. Those numbers are not “good for a champion,” they’re “good for a champion who wins minutes for fun.” His real edge is that he makes fights boring in the most profitable way—he forces opponents to work at his pace, in his lanes, for five rounds. When Volk is himself, he doesn’t just win exchanges; he wins the next exchange too, because he’s already positioned for it.
Lopes is the exact kind of opponent who can turn “minute-winning” into “minute-losing” with one sequence. His UFCStats profile screams chaos: 4.10 SLpM, but he absorbs 4.72 SApM with just 47% striking defense. In other words: he’s hittable, but he’s also always in range to hit you back—or to drag you into a scramble where the rules change. And the grappling is real: 1.7 submissions attempted per 15 minutes, plus respectable takedown success (55% TD accuracy) when he chooses to use it.
So what decides this? Two things:
Volk’s risk management: if he keeps his exits disciplined and doesn’t over-chase in pockets, he can bank rounds with volume and positioning.
Lopes’ “moment equity”: he doesn’t need to win 18 minutes—he needs one back take, one front choke look, one big shift in momentum.
I lean Volk because he has the more repeatable path to winning: cleaner minutes, better defense, and championship pacing. Lopes can absolutely win—but he’s more dependent on creating disorder, and Volk’s entire career has been about refusing to play that game. (Also, the last time Volk fought Lopes, we saw the shape of this matchup already: Volk’s process vs. Lopes’ threats.)
Pick: Volkanovski by decision (with live-bet value on Volk if Round 1 is competitive but “normal”).
5 Best Betting Picks for UFC 325
Yizha to Win (-200): Yizha’s finishing streak and superior striking metrics make him a lock against Ofli’s durability. His knockdown rate overwhelms in Round 2, offering value in a prelim spot where underdogs rarely shine.
Benoit Saint-Denis Inside the Distance (-130): BSD’s takedown volume and submission threat exploit Hooker’s recent sub losses. With three straight finishes, this co-main ends early, padding your parlay.
Mauricio Ruffy (-122): Ruffy’s power edges Fiziev’s volume in a close striker’s match. His recent UFC success against similar foes makes this a smart play at near even odds.
Oban Elliott (+130) The "dog" of the night. Oban Elliott doesn't know how to stop moving. In a fight against Micallef that is likely to be a grappling-heavy grind, cardio becomes the deciding factor. Elliott’s pace in the third round is usually enough to steal close decisions on the judges' scorecards.
Alexander Volkanovski by Decision (+110): Volk’s control mirrors their first fight, outpointing Lopes without the finish. His striking defense and experience secure the belt in a five-round masterclass.