UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo Odds, Predictions, and Free Picks
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
Prelims: 4:00 PM EST - ESPN+
Main Card: 7:00 PM EST - ESPN+
After a less-than-stellar August (-2.82 units), we bounced back strong last week (10/1) going 2-1 for +3.0 units; including cashing Yan in the main at +200. Another week off has allowed me to re-calibrate some things internally as we move on to one more UFC Fight Night before the legendary UFC 280.
Quick note: based on some feedback, I’ve updated the FAQ Page to include some Q&A on odds and what sportsbooks to use. If there are more questions, feel free to reach out on Twitter and I’m happy to address them.
Let’s dive into a few spots I’m keyed in on for this week.
Prelims
Nick Maximov vs. Jacob Malkoun
The future of the middleweight division will be on display in this one, as two of its best young prospects are set to square off. The favorite Maximov will step into the octagon following the first loss of his career, a first-round defeat (submission) from Andre Petroski in May.
His challenger Malkoun also comes into this fight off of a loss, a July defeat (decision) to Brendan Allen. Coming in Singapore at UFC 275, it’s worth noting Malkoun’s only other loss also came overseas in Abu Dhabi at UFC 254. I point this out as fighters have talked ad nauseam about the difficulty in preparing for them the week of.
Looking at the metrics, with 3 (Maximov) and 4 (Malkoun) fights in the UFC, Malkoun holds larges edges in significant strike landed volume (2x+), as well as submission averages (3x). We’ve already seen this number move in favor of Malkoun, a move I’m in agreement with and jumping on before it continues to fall.
Pick: Jacob Malkoun (+115 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
Raphael Assuncao vs. Victor Henry
A pair of veteran bantamweights will go at it in this one, as 39-year-old Assuncao (+295) takes on 35-year-old Victor Henry (-360). For the UFC veteran Assuncao, four straight losses have his UFC career very much in jeopardy, as only one has gone the distance.
For Henry, while he has 27 professional fights under his belt, only one has been in the UFC as the flamboyant “La Mangosta” still has plenty of ground to make up in terms of name recognition with the promotion.
As far as the metrics are concerned, there isn’t much to draw on given Henry has just one fight with the UFC. Instead, my attention turns to more of a qualitative prediction, in that both fighters need to avoid an early exit at all costs. For Assuncao, it’s the loss of his UFC status, and for Henry, it’s the earning of one of note.
Add in the fact that their combined average fight time is 2.73 rounds, and I like for this one to be left up to the judges before all is said and done.
Pick: Fight Goes the Distance (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 1.25 units
Mana Martinez vs. Brandon Davis
Out of the gates, this fight checks both our age (6+ years) and ring rust (365+ days between fights) boxes; both in favor of Martinez. Moving down to the metrics, Martinez also holds large edges in knockdown averages per 15 minutes, submission averages (6x), and takedowns (.5x).
Opening as a -110 split on both sides, Martinez has seen all the early money, moving to -155 as of Wednesday evening. With little in the way of public interest this early in the week and on a prelim fight, professional bettors are almost certainly involved in Martinez.
In what is currently his second stint in the UFC, Davis is 2-6 in his eight fights with the company, including a loss his last time in the octagon in October (first-round KO). A former Fury FC bantamweight champion (defended 3x, 1-1 in UFC since), Martinez also holds the fight history edge.
I’m riding with Martinez in one of my favorite plays of the night.
Pick: Mana Martinez (-155 at BetOnline.ag) to risk 3 units
Main Card
Misha Cirkunov vs. Alonzo Menifield
With 89% of these guys’ combined 20 UFC fights ending inside the distance, we can almost certainly expect fireworks in this one. Additionally, their combined average fight time is just 1.16 total rounds heading into this one, as both have a propensity to get in and get out of the octagon.
As for the 35-year-old Cirkunov, a 4-0 start to his UFC career beginning in 2016 has turned into a downhill slide, going 2-6 in the time since including losing his last three straight. Menifield, on the other hand, has won three of his past four including a first-round knockout of Askar Mozharov in June.
Already a heavy favorite, look for Menifield to go for the statement win in this one as he still has aspirations of climbing the light heavyweight rankings.
Pick: Alonzo Menifield - Inside the Distance (-110 at FanDuel) to risk 2 units
Cub Swanson vs. Jonathan Martinez
I don’t love taking a Cub Swanson fight to go by way of decision, but I have to go with my numbers on this one. Since joining the UFC in 2018, Martinez has racked up a record of 7-3, with five of those wins coming via decision.
My numbers also agree with Martinez being a -200 or higher favorite, as he comes into this fight on a three-fight win streak over worthy opponents. While Swanson’s recent run of three wins over his last four is impressive, he’s less than two years removed from a four-fight losing streak.
As well as a completely rebuilt knee.
While a Swanson KO/TKO win wouldn’t shock me, I’m sticking with what has worked for me in the past; my numbers
Pick: Jonathan Martinez by Decision (+150 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
BMP of the Week (Beer Money Parlay)**
Tatsuro Taira + Jacob Malkoun + Mana Martinez + Jordan Wright +Viviane Araujo (+3827 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Recap
Jacob Malkoun (+115 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
Assuncao/Henry Fight Goes the Distance (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 1.25 units
Mana Martinez (-155 at BetOnline.ag) to risk 3 units
Alonzo Menifield - Inside the Distance (-110 at FanDuel) to risk 2 units
Jonathan Martinez by Decision (+150 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
*All odds as of the day of posting.
**Parlays are the fastest way to lose money in sports betting. That said there is nothing more fun.
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Those pics were money.
Those picks were money.