UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen Odds, Predictions, and Free Picks
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
Prelims: 4:00 PM EST - ESPN+
Main Card: 7:00 PM EST - ESPN+
It was yet another winning week for subscribers at UFC 280, as we finished 5-2 (+6.85u) improving to 73% (+15.08u) in October. Just to recap, a $100 bettor is up more than $1,500 this month alone.
How’s that for return?
We now continue with one more October card, this one free for ESPN+ subscribers.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value remains.
Prelims
Andrei Arlovski vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Coming into this fight on a four-fight win streak and having won six of his past seven, 43-year-old Andrei Arlovski is getting respect in the betting markets. I just think a bit too much. Having failed to finish a fight inside of the distance since 2015, almost unheard of in the heavyweight division, Arlovski has relied on the judges in every win since.
He now draws a fighter in Rogerio de Lima who likely won’t let him settle in as he has during his recent run. To this point in his career, de Lima has finished 85% of his wins inside the distance, and comes into this fight with edges in knockdowns, striking accuracy, and absorbing fewer shots.
de Lima also holds a large edge in takedowns (3x), as well as submissions (2x). With more paths to a victory and the ability to push the pace, I like for de Lima to pick up the win here; likely inside of the distance.
Pick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-215 at FanDuel) to risk 2.15 units
Phil Hawes vs. Roman Dolidze
Two streaking middleweights with a combined two losses in the UFC will go at it Saturday in the Apex, as Phil Hawes takes on Roman Dolidze. Coming into this fight, 80% of their combined UFC wins have come inside of the distance, and I expect a similar result here.
For Hawes, his last two, and five of his last seven have gone by way of KO/TKO, with the other two being decisions in which he had multiple chances to put his opponent away. For Dolidze, outside of three decisions that spanned 2020/2021, every other professional fight for the Georgian has gone by way of submission or TKO.
With just six of these two’s 26 professional fights going to the judge’s scorecards, I don’t expect this matchup to produce the 7th.
Pick: Fight doesn’t go to Decision (-120 at FanDuel) to risk 2.4 units
Main Card
Dustin Jacoby vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
In what will be the first fight on the main card, we have a light heavyweight banger between two elite strikers in Dustin Jacoby and Khalil Rountree. Since opening as high as -185, we’ve seen Jacoby’s odds come down which I’m in disagreement with the more I dig.
For one, Jacoby has yet to lose since joining the UFC in October 2020, with his last loss coming in 2015, a submission in Bellator. With no takedowns from Rountree since joining the UFC, the ground isn't an aspect of Jacoby’s game we have to worry about here.
As mentioned, these two love to stand and throw, and Jacoby has the edge here in spades when it comes to striking. Leading in significant strikes landed per minute, striking accuracy, and striking defense, I like for Jacoby to edge out what should be a good fight here.
Pick: Dustin Jacoby (-165 at FanDuel) to risk 3 units
Tim Means vs. Max Griffin
Two UFC journeymen will square off in a welterweight co-main event on Saturday, as Tim Means takes on Max Griffin. So far, the market has shown love for Griffin, who opened as a -150 favorite and since moved upwards; a movement I’m in agreement with.
Having lost twice in his past five fights, Means’ weakness has been on the ground, losing both of those fights via submission. In steps Griffin, with grappling edges across the board including in submission average, takedown average, takedown accuracy, and takedown defense.
Griffin also has recent history on his side, having won three of his past four fights, with his most recent split decision loss vs. Neil Magny being a questionable one at best. With more paths to victory, I like for Griffin to get there in this one.
Pick: Max Griffin (-175 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
BMP of the Week (Beer Money Parlay)
Steve Garcia + Marcos Rogerio de Lima + Tresean Gore + Arnold Allen (+2744 at FanDuel)
Recap
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-215 at FanDuel) to risk 2.15 units
Hawes/Dolidze - Fight doesn’t go to Decision (-120 at FanDuel) to risk 2.4 units
Dustin Jacoby (-165 at FanDuel) to risk 3 units
Max Griffin (-175 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
*All odds as of the day of posting.
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