UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Kavanagh: Will Flyweights Get High or Crash in Mexico City's Thin-Air Throwdown?
UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Kavanagh: Preview, Odds, Predictions & Best Bets for Mexico City Card (February 28, 2026)
I’m traveling all week, so don’t have a ton of bandwidth for our usual depth, but wanted to at least get you guys something. Below are a few picks and thoughts for this week’s clash in Mexico City.
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh Best Bets
This week’s UFC event heads to Mexico City for a Fight Night card headlined by former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno facing rising contender Lone’er Kavanagh. With the added chaos going on South of the Border this week, this card should have its share of chaos on its own.
Here are my five best bets with brief breakdowns I’ve locked in.
Brandon Moreno Moneyline (-225)
Brandon Moreno’s championship pedigree and superior grappling make him a strong pick against Lone’er Kavanagh, who steps in on short notice after a recent knockout loss. The high altitude in Mexico City could exacerbate Kavanagh’s cardio issues, allowing Moreno to control the pace and secure a win via decision or submission. This bet aligns with templates favoring veterans in main events where preparation time matters.Marlon Vera Moneyline (+220)
As an underdog, Marlon Vera’s durability and knockout power give him upset potential against David Martinez, despite the local crowd favoring the Mexican fighter. Vera has faced top competition and thrives in grueling fights, potentially wearing down Martinez late if it goes beyond the early rounds. This follows templates for backing battle-tested underdogs in co-mains with stylistic edges in striking.Moreno vs. Kavanagh Over 4.5 Rounds (-140)
This flyweight clash is likely to go the distance given both fighters’ histories of durable, decision-heavy bouts, especially with Moreno’s grinding style. Kavanagh’s short-notice prep might lead to a cautious approach, reducing finish chances in the thin air of Mexico City. The over fits templates for high-round props in technical matchups without one-punch finishers.Douglas Silva de Andrade Moneyline (+180)
Silva de Andrade’s power and experience should overwhelm Jose Quinonez, who has struggled in recent UFC appearances and lacks the tools to handle pressure. In a bantamweight prelim, Silva de Andrade’s knockout rate makes him a scary dog, likely ending it early via TKO.Bobby Green Moneyline (+390)
As a veteran underdog, Bobby Green’s unorthodox striking and vast experience could frustrate the heavily favored Daniel Zellhuber in this lightweight bout, exploiting any overconfidence from the younger fighter. Green’s durability allows him to absorb pressure and counter effectively, potentially leading to an upset if the fight turns into a chaotic scramble in Mexico City’s altitude. This draws from templates spotting value in seasoned fighters with tricky styles against hyped prospects.We’ll be back next week with a full card for a stacked UFC 326.