UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes Predictions, Analysis, and Free Picks

YTD Premium Record: 84-59 (59%)

After a week largely away from my desk and riding a lot on straight numbers, I’m back home this week and fully focused on what I think is a sneaky good card despite the lack of attention it’s getting. At the top of the card, a pair of top 5 heavyweights will go at it, with the winner likely a fight away from the Jon Jones sweepstakes.

With plenty of value throughout this one, let’s dive straight into my favorite spots.

Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV

Prelims: 4:00 PM EST - ESPN+

Main Card: 7:00 PM EST - ESPN+

Prelims

Priscila Cachoeira vs. Karine Silva

Since opening as high as +210, we saw some instant action on “Zombie Girl”, and that was a train I jumped on right away. Since the start of 2020, Cachoeira is on a 4-1 run, winning three of those wins coming inside the distance.

In terms of her matchup vs. Silva, Cachoeira has significant advantages in strikes landed per minute (2x), striking accuracy (2x), and striking defense. She is outmatched on the ground, but her takedown defense of 65% should serve her well in this fight.

She also has experience on her side, coming into Saturday with eight UFC fights under her belt including facing stiff competition in Valentina Shevchenko, Molly McCann, Gillian Robertson, and most recently a first-round win over Ariane Lipski.

On the other side, Silva is still a relative unknown despite her impressive resume of six straight wins, all inside the distance. I do think she’s taking a significant step up in this one, and getting too much respect in the market with relatively little proven success against upper-echelon opponents.

Pick: Priscila Cachoeira (+165 at FanDuel Sportsbook) to risk 1 unit

Rani Yaha vs. Montel Jackson

The straight odds for this fight have ballooned even further than the fat opening number, moving from -500 to -600 and well out of reach. There is an angle to this fight I do love, however. Looking at 10 fights involving male fighters so far this year that closed at -600 or higher, nine of those wins came inside the distance.

Unlike many metrics that are based on weight classes and historical averages, I don’t think we see regression with this number.

Starting with the heavy underdog, Yaha comes into this fight at 38 years old, typically when we see fighters start to trend downwards. It’s also been over 500 days since his last fight, coming into this one not just with heavy ring rust but following a serious injury. Missing all of 2022 with a serious neck injury, Yaha was twice forced to back out of a fight with Cody Garbrandt in the past 12 months.

Montel Jackson, on the other hand, comes into this fight in the prime of his career at 31 years old, with just one loss since 2018. From a metric standpoint, Jackson also has the edges nearly across the board, with large edges in significant strikes landed per minute (2x), takedown accuracy (2x), and takedown defense (3x).

While Yaha is as tough as they come, I do think his days in the UFC are numbered, and just like the UFC tends to do, they’ve served him up on a silver platter for this one. Add in the fact Jackson is in desperate need of a statement win, and I think he gets just that here.

Pick: Montel Jackson - Inside the Distance (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 1.1 units

Main Card

Jeremiah Wells vs. Matt Semelsberger

This one opened up with Wells as high as a -150 favorite, which is much closer to where I think it actually belongs.

Wells comes into this fight on a five-fight win streak, winning all five inside two rounds with the last three being in the UFC. Looking at the numbers, as I do first for every fight, Wells has significant advantages everywhere, including knockdown (2x), strikes absorbed (1.62 vs. 4.57), and submission average (9x).

In short, he does just about everything better.

As far as Semelsberger, a bad loss to Alex Morno over the summer was followed up with a decision win vs. Jake Matthews in December. While impressive, he won that fight on the ground, something he won’t be able to accomplish against a guy like Wells.

Despite there being a six-year age difference in favor of Semelsberger, Jackson comes into the octagon Saturday with just 14 professional fights, having taken little damage over that time. If he can get out of the first round, I think he finds his way to the winner’s circle in this one.

Pick: Jeremiah Wells (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 1.1 units

Bobby Green vs. Jared Gordon

In the 15+ years of watching combat sports, I’m not sure I’ve seen a decision as egregious as the one Gordon received in his last fight vs. Paddy Pimblett. Every fighter (including Paddy, it seemed), analyst and casual fan seemed to share that opinion short of those associated with Barstool.

That being said, I love the price we’re getting here on Gordon’s return fight.

I’ve never really been a huge fan of Bobby Green, and while I’m not going as far as saying he’s overrated, I do think his personality has gotten him some otherwise unwarranted opportunities. Add in the fact he’s teased retirement as of late at not just 36 years old but 44 fights into his professional career, and I’m just not convinced he’s all-in like he once was.

And I certainly don’t think a -260 is warranted.

As far as the metrics go, you’d think Green would run laps around Gordon in striking, but that isn’t the case at all. While the striking metrics are basically even, Gordon has the only significant edge, which comes on the ground via takedowns (nearly 2x).

The more well-rounded, hungrier, and most importantly focused fighter, I have this fight much closer to a pick-em, making Gordon one of my favorite plays on this card.

Pick: Jared Gordon (+220 at BetUS) to risk 1 unit

BMP of the Week (Beer Money Parlay) sponsored by BetUS

William Gomis + Christos Giagos + Brogan Walker + Brad Tavares (+3950)

Recap

• Priscila Cachoeira (+165 at FanDuel Sportsbook) to risk 1 unit

• Montel Jackson - Inside the Distance (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 1.1 units

• Jeremiah Wells (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 1.1 units

• Jared Gordon (+220 at BetUS) to risk 1 unit

All Fights - Picks w/ Confidence Levels & Modeled Odds

YTD Premium Record: 84-59 (59%)

*All bets are one unit

All Fights - Dashboards (not found above)

*All odds as of the day of posting.

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