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UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos Odds, Predictions, and Free Picks
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
Prelims: 4:00 PM EST - ESPN+
Main Card: 7:00 PM EST - ESPN+
Another card in the books and another winning week for subscribers as we go 3-1 on the week and finish October +17.23 units, picking at 74% accuracy. To summarize, a $100 bettor on every fight given out would currently be up $1,723 this month alone.
That also brings our total units since inception to +53.55 units. Not bad, eh?
While I certainly don’t expect to keep this pace every month moving forward, I’m feeling extremely dialed in right now with my numbers and overall feel. That said, I don’t see a ton of edges for this card, so fairly light slate this week compared to the last few.
Let’s dive into the last fight night before a massive UFC 281 next week in New York City.
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Liudvik Sholinian vs. Johnny Munoz
A perfect 9-0 when coming to the UFC in August 2020, Munoz has struggled from a results standpoint having lost two of three since. Losing a tough decision loss in his first fight vs. Nate Maness, Munoz won his next via submission before losing to Tony Gravely via KO (1st round) in June.
His opponent is who I’m more so fading in this one, however.
Sholinian is 0-3 in his time with Bellator and the UFC, losing all three fights to relatively unknown guys. He’s also getting trounced in the metrics in this matchup, with Munoz having the edge in striking (2x), takedowns (2.5x), submissions (2.5x), as well as absorbing 6x more shots.
Add in the ring rust factor of Sholinian having not fought in well over a year, and I’m riding with Munoz in this one.
Pick: Johnny Munoz (-215 at FanDuel) to risk 2.15 units
Darrick Minner vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Having lost his last two and three of five since joining the UFC, I think we’re actually getting a fighter here in Minner better than his record indicates. Having not moved since opening at +170, the market seems to largely not disagree.
Coming into this fight, Minner holds edges vs. “Wolverine” across the board. Significant strikes come in at nearly 1.5x higher, he’s absorbing nearly 2x fewer strikes, and he has 3x the submission average; in addition to more than 2x takedown accuracy.
As for Woverline’s fighting history, it largely comes in Chinese fighting promotions, with only three fights outside of the country all ending in a decision. Fighting a guy in Minner who will push the pace, I think this is much closer to even on paper, and am on the underdog in this one.
Pick: Derrick Minner (+170 at FanDuel) to risk 1 unit
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Nathan Maness
Losing just his second professional fight in March vs. Tim Elliot (decision), I have a lean on Ulanbekov to bounce back in this one but I think the better play is on this going the distance. As for the Russian flyweight, this will be his fourth fight in the UFC, all of which have gone to the judge’s scorecards.
His opponent, Nate Maness, also has the propensity to drag fights out with two of his last four fights going the distance. On average, these two’s rounds in the UFC come out to 2.62 total rounds per fight.
Both also have wrestling tendencies, which I think we see forced here leading to a lot of time running off the clock.
Pick: Fight goes to Decision (-175 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
BMP of the Week (Beer Money Parlay)
Daniel Rodriguez + Mario Bautista + Mark Madesn + Amanda Lemos (+2066 at FanDuel)
Johnny Munoz (-215 at FanDuel) to risk 2.15 units
Derrick Minner (+170 at FanDuel) to risk 1 unit
Ulanbekov/Maness - Fight goes to Decision (-175 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
*All odds as of the day of posting.