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UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song Odds, Predictions, and Free Picks
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
Prelims: 4:00 PM EST - ESPN+
Main Card: 7:00 PM EST - ESPN+
The bedlem that was UFC 279 was not kind to us, as we finish 2-2 on the night but lose our biggest bet in Jamie Pickett. He went away from his game plan of taking this to the ground and paid the price, though two blatant shots where the sun doesn’t shine didn’t help much either. In the Chiasson fight, we dominated on the stats sheet, losing by KO after getting caught; but that’s why the fight game is the greatest.
It’s on to the next as we now head back to the UFC Apex for a UFC Fight Night headlined by two bantamweights in Cory Sandhagen and Song Yadong.
Let’s get into it.
Tony Gravely vs. Javid Basharat
Javid Basharat will make his highly anticipated return to the octagon, as the season five DWCS star won his first fight for the promotion in March. The decision win was his first professional bout to ever go to the judge’s scorecard, and worth mentioning, against an Xtreme Coutoure teammate in Trevin Jones.
His opponent here, Tony Gravely, is another DWCS alum (season three), who is 4-2 in his time with the UFC. A closer look shows, however, that Gravely’s last two wins came against opponents with a UFC record of just 1-3.
Add in a 4” reach advantage and advantages in metrics across the board, I’m taking Basharat in this fight in my favorite bet of the night.
Pick: Javid Basharat (-155 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
Damon Jackson vs. Pat Sabatini
This fight will feature a pair of BJJ specialists, who have a combined record of 25-1 in fights finished by way of submission. For Jackson, a 1-1 start to his UFC career in early 2020 has been followed up with three straight wins, most recently in June vs. Dan Argueta (unanimous decision).
Sabatini, however, comes into this fight without a blemish on his UFC run thus far, a perfect 4-0 following leaving Cage Fury FC with their featherweight belt. With four (Sabatini) and eight (Jackson) fights in the UFC, both fighters have enough of a sample size to put stock into their metrics.
More edges to Sabatini.
As of Saturday, Sabatini holds advantages in both striking and grappling, as well as absorbing 2x fewer strikes.
Pick: Pat Sabatini (-180 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
Louis Cosce vs. Trevin Giles
I think we have some serious value here in a fight between two fighters that average just 1.79 rounds per fight, with an average of 90% of their wins coming inside the distance. As for Cosce, he’ll be making his long-awaited return to the octagon after losing his UFC debut in November of 2020, a third KO/TKO from Sasha Palatnikov.
The loss was not only his first professional loss and fight to go the distance, but his first fight to ever leave the first round.
As for Giles, he has an almost equal propensity for violence. Of his 28 professional fights, only three have gone the distance.
With a combined 11.31 significant strikes landed per minute and 2.61 knockdowns per 15 minutes, I like our chances this one ends early (and violently).
Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-138 at BetOnline.ag) to risk 2 units
Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Tanner Boser
This is our only play on the main card, but I think we have an edge here in Nascimento. Making his debut in May 2020 via DWCS, Nascimento has won two of three, both in the second round, with his only loss coming to #11 heavyweight Chris Daukaus.
As for Boser, at seven fights in the UFC, he’s sitting at 4-3 but has now lost two of three. Though I put less stock into metrics at the heavyweight division, Nascimento does hold them across the board including nearly 2x on the ground.
Bottom line, I have this fight as close to even on paper, pointing me toward the underdog in this one.
Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento (+155 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 1 unit
BMP of the Week (Beer Money Parlay)**
Mariya Agapova + Loma Lookboonmee + Rodrigo Nascimento + Cory Sandhagen (+1090 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Javid Basharat (-155 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
Pat Sabatini (-180 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
Giles/Cosce Under 2.5 Rounds (-138 at BetOnline.ag) to risk 2 units
Rodrigo Nascimento (+155 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 1 unit
*All odds as of the day of posting.
**Parlays are the fastest way to lose money in sports betting. That said there is nothing more fun. Have at it, but only with our weekly beer
(High Noons at JC HQ) money.