Discover more from Top UFC Predictions by Johnny Covers
UFC San Diego: Quick Recap & Lookahead (+5.03 Units)
Finished the week 3-1 on straight bets for +5.03 units
It was a great afternoon/evening for us on Saturday as we finished the day 3-1 on straight bets, 3-2 overall, and most importantly +5.03 units. Let’s take a quick peak at how things went before moving on to this week’s PPV event.
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Win - Josh Quinlan (-245 at DraftKings) to risk 2.45 units
Gotta love it when things come together exactly how we drew them up. Quinlan is going to be a real problem in this division if he can stay clean enough to actually fight in the state of Nevada.
Loss - Parlay: Ode Osbourne & Gabriel Benitez (-127 at DraftKings) to risk 1.27 units
Got there easily in the first part with Benitez, and then Osbourne went out and for some reason attempted a half-assed flying knee. Basically seeing it in slow motion, Nam saw it coming from a mile away and countered quickly to finish this fight before it even really got going.
Win - Calvillo/Nunes Goes the Distance - Yes (-210 at BetOnline.ag) to risk 2.1 units
Looking at the stat sheet and Nunes is lucky to have won this fight via a split decision, as Calvillo won the ground game and tallied more strikes throughout the fight. The bottom line for us, neither of them went for the kill and we cash with relative ease.
Win - Priscila Cachoeira (+165 at Barstool Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
Like the Quinlan pick, I gave this out two weeks in a row and it was one of our easiest wins of the night. After two-piecing her right down the middle to start the fight, Cachoeira finished this one for us in the very first round.
Loss - Dominik Cruz (+200 at Caesars Sportsbook) to risk 1 unit
I got a bit greedy on this one and talked myself into betting Cruz, which after the second round I knew wasn’t going to work out; despite Cruz likely winning both rounds. Though he was more active and won in the stats department, Chito’s power is unmatched in this weight class and ultimately kept him in control despite losing rounds.
Likely the beginning of the end for Dom.
Quick Lookahead to UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2
I still need to dig into each, but here’s what my model shows as edges this week. Complete card picks and write-ups coming Wednesday at the latest.
Victor Altamirano -200
AJ Fletcher -160
As a reminder, all tracked plays can be found here.