UFC Vegas 113: Bautista vs. Oliveira – Full Card Predictions & Betting Guide
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira Predictions, Odds, and Full Fight Card Breakdown
Another week down, another week in the green, as we finished UFC 325 3-2 for +1.1 units, and are 2-0 (+6.6 units) on main events, calling the exact winner + finish type on both. Through two weeks of the Paramount+ era, we’re at +4.6 units as we turn the page to the first UFC Fight Night of the year. On to the next…
The UFC returns to the Meta APEX on February 7, 2026, for a high-stakes bantamweight clash that serves as the ultimate litmus test for the division's next title challenger. While the spotlight is on the main event between #9 Mario Bautista and the electric Vinicius Oliveira, the card is a technical minefield featuring the return of flyweight icon Kyoji Horiguchi and the relentless grappling of Jailton Almeida. In this "Paramount+ Era" debut, we break down every fight with the metrics and history you need to dominate the books.
Prelims
Women’s Flyweight: Priscila Cachoeira (+124) vs. Klaudia Sygula (-148)
Priscila Cachoeira absorbs massive damage (6.32 SApM, highest in the division) but keeps coming. Klaudia Sygula, 25 and on a seven-fight win streak with six finishes, offers superior striking (5.8 SLpM, 55% accuracy) and grappling (2.5 takedowns/15 min). Sygula’s technical edge mirrors fighters who have outworked Cachoeira recently—expect a Round 2 submission as the Pole announces her arrival.
Bantamweight: Muin Gafurov (-130) vs. Jakub Wiklacz (+110)
Gafurov is a Tasmanian devil—all energy and power. Wiklacz is a KSW veteran with a sophisticated submission game. This is a classic “striker vs. grappler” affair. Gafurov often struggles when he can’t get the early knockout. Wiklacz’s poise and guard play should allow him to weather the storm and find a neck late. Leaning Wiklacz by Submission, likely in round 3.
Women’s Flyweight: Eduarda Moura (+230) vs. Wang Cong (-300)
Eduarda Moura (2.8 takedowns/15 min, strong grappling) faces Wang Cong’s undefeated run and kickboxing pedigree (6.5 SLpM, 62% accuracy). Cong’s striking overwhelms Moura’s defensive holes—expect a Round 1 TKO as the Chinese star keeps rolling.
Bantamweight: Said Nurmagomedov (+115) vs. Javid Basharat (-135)
Said Nurmagomedov offers flash (spinning KOs, 4.6 SLpM) but has been inconsistent lately. Javid Basharat remains perfect in the UFC (5-0), with higher volume (5.2 SLpM) and pressure at age 26. Basharat controls pace for a decision win, though Said’s explosiveness keeps it competitive.
Women’s Strawweight: Bruna Brasil (+140) vs Ketlen Souza (-168)
Brasil’s game is built on striking volume and technical control. She maintains steady output, throws straight combinations, and doesn’t waste motion. Her biggest strength is round management — she understands when to press and when to maintain distance. Souza, meanwhile, is more physical and dangerous in short bursts, but her offense comes in waves rather than sustained pressure.
In fights that extend beyond early exchanges, Brasil’s cleaner technique and higher work rate typically separate her on the scorecards. Souza’s power gives her a live underdog path, but if she can’t disrupt rhythm early, Brasil’s consistency takes over. This shapes up as a fight where minute-winning efficiency outweighs moment-based damage.
Welterweight: Daniil Donchenko (-570) vs Alex Morono (+425)
This matchup is a classic speed-and-volume striker versus seasoned durability test. Donchenko fights with a high output style built on quick entries and clean straight punches. He doesn’t load up on single shots — he throws in combination and exits on angles, which makes him difficult to counter cleanly. His defensive movement is underrated, particularly against slower pressure fighters. He tends to win rounds by outlanding opponents rather than chasing finishes.
Morono brings experience and toughness, but his defensive liabilities are well documented. He absorbs a high number of significant strikes and relies on grit and opportunistic moments to swing fights. Against younger, faster strikers, he often struggles to close distance without taking damage. Donchenko’s pace and cleaner shot selection should create a widening striking differential as the fight progresses. Unless Morono can force prolonged clinch exchanges, the technical gap favors Donchenko over three rounds.
Main Card
Light Heavyweight: Dustin Jacoby (-195) vs. Julius Walker (+162)
Dustin Jacoby remains one of the most consistent kickboxers in the 205-pound division. Despite being an elder statesman of the weight class, his leg kicks and jab remain sharp. He lands 5.44 SLpM and maintains a 60% TDD.
Julius Walker is the younger, more explosive athlete, but he lacks the technical refinement of Jacoby. In a large cage, Walker’s athleticism might shine, but in the APEX, Jacoby’s ability to “box” his way out of trouble is paramount. Look for Jacoby to chop down Walker’s lead leg and win a technical, albeit gritty, decision.
Bantamweight: Jean Matsumoto (+230) vs. Farid Basharat (-280)
Farid Basharat is a technical masterpiece in motion. Alongside his brother Javid, he has brought a high-IQ, low-risk, high-reward style to the UFC. Farid is averaging 3.5 takedowns and boasts a nearly 60% striking accuracy. He is the definition of “smart” MMA.
Jean Matsumoto is a Brazilian prospect with a heavy-handed approach and a 16-0 record. He is dangerous because he doesn’t know how to lose yet. However, Matsumoto’s tendency to load up on single shots will be his undoing against the fluid movement and varied attack of Basharat. Farid will likely use his jab to frustrate Matsumoto before timing a level change to secure rounds.
Middleweight: Michal Oleksiejczuk (-360) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+285)
This is a classic “hammer vs. anvil” matchup. Michal Oleksiejczuk is one of the most dangerous first-round punchers in the middleweight division. He has a left hand that ends nights early, as seen in his numerous first-round finishes. His weakness remains his grappling, but Barriault isn’t exactly a submission specialist.
Marc-Andre “Power Bar” Barriault is a cardio machine who thrives on volume and clinch dirty boxing. He wants to drag you into deep water and drown you in the third round. For Barriault to win, he must survive the initial five-minute storm. Given Oleksiejczuk’s recent defensive improvements and the small APEX cage, Michal should be able to find the chin before the cardio advantage becomes a factor.
Heavyweight: Jailton Almeida (-155) vs. Rizvan Kuniev (+125)
Jailton Almeida is among the division’s premier grapplers, averaging 5.5 takedowns per 15 minutes with chain wrestling and dangerous submissions (recent sub wins). Rizvan Kuniev brings legitimate KO power on the feet but has clear vulnerabilities against elite wrestlers who can close distance and drag fights down. Almeida’s path is straightforward: pressure forward, secure the clinch or a reactive takedown, and work his suffocating top game. Kuniev’s best chance is an early knockout, but Almeida’s durability and grappling IQ make that unlikely. Look for Almeida to take the fight to the mat early and finish via submission in Round 1 or 2.
Flyweight: Amir Albazi (+250) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (-340)
Amir Albazi excels with submissions, top control, and a high fight IQ (6-1 UFC), but he can be outstruck by elite technical kickboxers. Kyoji Horiguchi, in his long-awaited UFC debut, brings world-class speed, footwork, crisp combinations, and historically strong takedown defense from his Bellator and Rizin runs. Horiguchi’s striking volume and movement should neutralize Albazi’s grappling entries, allowing him to rack up points on the feet across three rounds. Albazi is dangerous if he gets it down, but Horiguchi’s experience against top competition and ability to dictate range make him a strong favorite. Expect a clear decision victory for the veteran in a showcase debut performance.
Bantamweight (Main Event): Mario Bautista (-200) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (+160)
Mario Bautista (16-3, 10-3 UFC) is a high-volume technician who excels at range management, landing 5.58 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy while mixing in takedowns and top control. He has beaten strong veterans like Pedro Munhoz and Jose Aldo, and his cardio holds up beautifully over five rounds. Vinicius Oliveira (23-3, 4-0 UFC) brings knockout power and forward aggression, but he has shown cardio concerns in longer fights and against relentless pressure (e.g., vs. Jack Shore types). Stylistically, Bautista’s grinding pace and volume mirror fighters who have troubled Oliveira in the past.
Common opponent ties (Bautista’s win over Aldo, whose technical striking Oliveira emulates) further favor the veteran. Bautista should use footwork, jab volume, and timely takedowns to neutralize Oliveira’s power, wear him down, and secure a hard-fought unanimous decision in a classic veteran vs. prospect main event.
5 Best Free Betting Picks for UFC Vegas 113
Michal Oleksiejczuk by TKO/KO (-120): Michal’s power in the first round is a near-certainty. Barriault is tough, but the APEX cage doesn’t allow for the space he needs to escape Oleksiejczuk’s initial barrage. Betting the “Michal inside the distance” prop offers great value.
Wang Cong by KO/TKO (+110): Cong is a generational striking talent. Moura is a game opponent, but the gap in stand-up skills is cavernous. Once Cong finds her range, the finish will come quickly.
Javid Basharat (-135): Getting the more technical Basharat brother at near-even money against Said Nurmagomedov is a steal. While Said is flashy, Javid’s consistency and ability to nullify opponents’ weapons make him the smart money play.
Jailton Almeida by Submission (-110): Almeida is a submission hunter at heavyweight. Kuniev has never faced a grappler who initiates the clinch with this much speed. Expect Almeida to secure a body lock, drag the fight down, and find the rear-naked choke.
Jakub Wiklacz ML (+110): Superior submissions and momentum make this a high-value upset over Gafurov.
