UFC Vegas 59: Quick Recap & Lookahead (+.35 Units)
We stayed in the black this week, finishing the card 2-2 (50%) for +.35 units. Below are a few thoughts on each fight we were on and some spots I’m looking at for next week that could be on the move throughout the week.
Prelims
Win - Cory McKenna (-225 at DraftKings) to risk 2.25 units
This one went almost exactly how we drew it up, as McKenna landed 3 of 4 takedowns out of the gate following a striking clinic. Got there via submission in the second round, becoming the first woman to submit her opponent via Von Flue choke in UFC history.
Canceled - Josh Quinlan (-210 at DraftKings) to risk 2.1 units
You’d think being suspended for nine months after testing positive last year, Quinlan wouldn’t even mess around with something he wasn’t 100% sure of in this camp. We may be getting this one back as soon as this week, however.
Loss - Terrence McKinney to win via KO/TKO (+130 at BetOnline) to risk 1 unit
McKinney was basically going to pick his spot here and once Gonzalez gave him an opening for the choke I figured we were screwed. First round finish from T-Wrecks was the play here, unfortunately.
Main Card
Win - Sergey Spivac Win Inside the Distance (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 1.25 units
As I noted in this writeup, you simply can’t absorb as many shots as Sakai does in this division and expect to last. Spivac got in 33 significant strikes in just over one round, all while controlling for 6:37 on the ground.
Easy as they come here.
Loss - Vicente Luque (-165 at Caesars Sportsbook) to risk 1.65 units
I think Neal caught Luque off guard in this one with his takedown, and we never really settled into a rhythm in what was a war with each fighter landing over 95 significant strikes. Credit to Neal for the late finish, but wish Luque picked his spots a bit better here.
Quick Lookahead to UFC San Diego: Vera vs. Cruz
Still need to dig into each, but here’s what my model is showing as edges this week. Complete card picks and write-ups coming Wednesday.
Josh Quinlan -250
Devin Clark +140
As a reminder, all tracked plays can be found here.