UFC 280: Odds, Predictions, and Free Picks
UFC 280: Odds, Predictions, and Free Picks
Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Prelims: 10:00 AM EST - ESPN NEWS/ESPN+
Main Card: 2:00 PM EST - ESPN+ PPV
Bang. Bang.
Another strong week in the books as we go 4-1 (+5.24 units) to move to 6-2 in October (+8.24 units). But as the great Silvio once said, you're only as good as you’re last envelope.
And just like that, it’s officially UFC 280 fight week which at the top has at least four fights all good enough to be main events. It also offers two titles on the line as Charles Oliveira takes on Islam Makhachev (lightweight) and Aljamanain Sterling defends his belt (bantamweight) vs. TJ Dillashaw.
An FYI for those new here, this site/newsletter is intended to do one thing; make us money. That said, I only give out picks on the main/co-main when I see there’s value, not because they’re the most popular fights.
With the first of 14 fights kicking off at 10 AM EST, let’s take a closer look at where I see the value ahead of what should be an epic day of action.
Prelims
Lina Lansberg vs. Karol Rosa
At 40 years of age, Lansberg comes into this fight as the second oldest female fighting in the UFC and 13 years older than her opponent. Even still, we’ve seen the money come in on the veteran fighter, as her odds have moved from +235 to +215 as fight night has drawn closer.
On the other side of this fight, Rosa comes in following her first loss since joining the UFC, a March unanimous decision L vs. Sara McMann. The loss also halted a six-fight winning streak, one I think she gets back on track with this fight.
Coming into it, Rosa holds advantages in significant strikes landed (3x), takedown averages (2x), and takedown defense (~2x).
Over these two’s last combined 10 fights, all have gone by way of the judge’s scorecard, and the two combined have an average UFC fight time of 2.83 rounds. In what could be the last fight of her career, don’t expect Lansberg to go down without a fight as this one goes the distance.
While laying the juice would likely be fine, I’m more keyed in Rosa winning this one by decision.
Pick: Karol Rosa by Decision (-115 at FanDuel) to risk 2 units
Armen Petrosyan vs. AJ Dobson
This fight pits two season five Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS) opponents against each other in the light heavyweight division. Starting with the favorite, Petrosyan comes into this fight just 1-1 since joining the UFC, losing to Caio Barralho in July of this year via unanimous decision.
Holding a slight edge in significant strikes and striking defense, Dobson, however, actually holds the larger edge in knockdowns, as well as across the board on the ground. While Dobson also comes in off a loss, the first of his career, it was a three-round war decision vs. Malkoun, whose merit we just saw on display last week.
Simply put, I think Dobson has more paths to victory in this matchup and offers value at nearly 2/1 a fight I have as much closer to even.
Pick: AJ Dobson (+180 at FanDuel) to risk 1 unit
Nikita Krylov vs. Volkan Oezdemir
With a combined 87% of this matchup wins coming inside the distance, I’ll start this handicap off with two words; expect violence.
For the favorite Krylov, two losses in 12 months were followed up by a statement first-round KO of Alexander Gustaffson in July, getting him back inside the top 10 in the division with the win.
As for Oezedemir, the story is similar, with a July win over Paul Craig ending a two-fight slide. Since fighting Daniel Cormier for the belt in January 2018, however, it’s been a rocky road for Oezdemir who has now lost five of eight since then.
Coming into this fight, Krylov holds the edge or matches his opponent in every single metric I look at every week with the exception of takedown defense; a route we don’t have to worry about when it comes to Oezdemir. While -165 is likely fine straight up, I like the value in this one ending early in favor of the Ukrainian.
Pick: Nikita Krylov - Inside the Distance (+145 at FanDuel) to risk 1 unit
Makhmud Muradov vs. Caio Borralho
After a 3-0 start to his UFC career, Muradov lost his first real test in August 2021; a 2nd round submission L to Gerald Meerschaert. Having not fought since, Muradov checks our ring rust box, and his challenge will get even steeper in this one.
For Borralho, his sole professional loss came back in 2015, winning his next 10 fights (+1 draw), including two in the DWCS and two in the UFC. Specifically in this matchup, “The Natural” holds advantages in striking, striking defense, and most noticeably on the ground in takedown average (9x) and accuracy (4x). What he lacks in striking volume, he also makes up for in accuracy with a +20% higher clip.
With a win propelling him into the top 10 conversations in the middleweight division, look for a strong showing from Borralho in one of my favorite plays of the day.
Pick: Caio Barralho (-200 at FanDuel) to risk 3 units
Main Card
Katlyn Chookagian vs. Manon Fiorot
We’re late to the party here with Fiorot as she has ballooned from her opener of -175, but this should only get larger as the fight looms closer.
Outside of a split decision loss to start her career in 2018, Fiorot has had a spotless record with six of her nine wins coming via KO/TKO. Before coming to the UFC in 2021, Fiorot actually fought in the nearby UAE Warriors promotion, becoming a flyweight champion. Her experience fighting in this part of the world should make the lead-up equation to this fight much easier than her opponent is dealing with.
As for Chookagian, her February 2020 loss vs. Valentina Shevchenko for the flyweight belt has resulted in deceptive results since, going 5-1 but failing to put any of her mostly middle-of-the-road opponents away.
With edges across the board from a metric standpoint, I like for Fiorot to get this one done and break into the top 10 in the process.
Pick: Manon Fiorot (-205 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2.05 units
Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev
It’s hard to see a path where this isn’t just a great fight from start to finish.
Coming in on an 11-fight win streak, the champ (still the champ for anyone with a single brain cell) has finished 10 of his challengers over that run inside the distance, with seven coming via submission. With some of the best jiu-jitsu the sport has ever seen, “do Bronx” averages 2.89 submissions per 15 minutes to arrive at 64% of his wins ending on the ground.
With that all said, in steps Khabib's protege Islam Makhachev whose ground game has carried him to 10 straight wins (all in the UFC) in his own right; 60% of which have come inside the distance including three of his past four by submission. While Makhachev does trail his opponent in this fight in striking, he absorbs less than 1/3 the strikes of Oliveira and has some of the best striking defense in the UFC.
While the champ’s run has been impressive, he’s relied on his ground game for many of those wins and I think he meets his match here. While I like Makhachev to win here, I’m hedging (and potentially doubling down) with the added prop bet.
Pick: Islam Makhachev (-165 at FanDuel) to risk 3.3 units & Either Fighter by Submission (-115 at FanDuel) to risk 2 units
BMP of the Week (Beer Money Parlay)**
Sean Brady by Decision + Nikita Krylov + Petr Yan + Aljamain Sterling by Submission (+3179 at FanDuel)
Recap
Karol Rosa - by Decision (-115 at FanDuel) to risk 3 units
AJ Dobson (+180 at FanDuel) to risk 1 unit
Nikita Krylov - Inside the Distance (+145 at FanDuel) to risk 1 unit
Caio Barralho (-200 at FanDuel) to risk 3 units
Manon Fiorot (-205 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2.05 units
Islam Makhachev (-165 at FanDuel) to risk 3.3 units
Makhachev/Oliveira - Either Fighter by Submission (-115 at FanDuel) to risk 2 units
*All odds as of the day of posting.
**Parlays are the fastest way to lose money in sports betting. That said there is nothing more fun.
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