Welp, that hurt.

We started behind the eight-ball last week with two of our five fights canceled, before Soriano, Ribiero, and Hernandez all decided to take the night off.

I’ve Monday Morning Quarterbacked each of the selections, but the bottom line is these nights happen in sports betting. No matter how good you are or if anyone tells you differently. No matter how well-informed you are, it’s still gambling.

We take stock, adjust, and move on.

No time to sulk as we have a massive card this Saturday for our first PPV card of the year, where I fully intend to bounce back.

Location: Jeunesse Arena, Rio De Janeiro

Early Prelims: 6:00 PM EST - ESPN+

Prelims: 8:00 PM EST - ABC/ESPN/ESPN+

Main Card: 10:00 PM EST - ESPN+ PPV

Both the main and co-main events this week will feature title bouts, as Glover Teixeira and Jamahal Hill face off for the light heavyweight strap at the top, and Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno (4) go at it in the co-main.

As of Tuesday, there are 15 bouts on this card, so I’ll be picking our spots carefully, staying away from anything that’s already sharply moved in price, or includes an unknown entity.

Let’s dive in.

Early Prelims

Josiane Nunes vs. Zarah Fairn Dos Santos

This matchup checks a ton of boxes in favor of Nunes, and while the price has shot away from us by nearly 50%, I think there’s some value in it ending early. Not only does Nunes come in with an 11-year age advantage, but her opponent Dos Santos has not fought in just shy of three years (ring rust).

Even if both of those things were equal, based on two fights each in the UFC, Nunes has the advantage across the board when it comes to the metrics. In striking, those advantages are significant.

While I typically stay away from women’s fights ending inside of the distance, just one of these two fighters’ last five fights has made it the full three rounds.

Lastly, the -120 posted at BetWay currently lags behind the rest of the market where this prop is closer to -150, where available, and as high as -175 at BetOnline (below). The total 2.5 rounds are also heavily shaded to the under across the board, with Nunes as high as a -590 favorite at FanDuel.

With a statement win here inching her that much closer to the top 10 in the bantamweight division, look for a strong showing from Nunes in her home country of Brazil.

Pick: Josiane Nunes - To Win by KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission (-120 at BetWay) to risk 2.4 units

Before we get to the premium version (all non-PPV events will remain free) of this week’s newsletter, which includes five additional selections plus a host of other features, here is a featured pick from Kyle at Never Hedge Picks. UFC handicapping is not a zero-sum game, and I’ve learned a lot from these guys. Enjoy!

What’s up guys it’s Kyle with NeverHedge Media. Thanks to Johnny Covers for featuring me this week in his article to you guys!

UFC 283 is a stacked card and after watching tape I really feel like there is money to be made here.

Bonfim is a highly touted prospect coming off DWCS. BUT I have some cause for concerns following his last fight. He was backed up to the cage a few times by Abbasov. Against the cage he froze and covered up. The smaller Abbasov would throw a wild over hand right and Bonfim would circle out. Against McKinney this will be a problem. Another cause for concern is he was taken down by Abbasov. He was able to get right back to his feet.

I’m not even sure they counted it as a takedown, but the takeaway for me is that the opening is there. McKinney is a special athlete. He’s massive for the division. He has true one punch ko power. He has some of the best wrestling in the division and he has the killer instinct you want. Don’t worry too much about those gas tank concerns. He goes 100 mph and took that last fight on short notice. TWrecks wrecks Bonfim here

Pick: Terrance McKinney ITD -105

Prelims & Main Card

All Fights - Picks w/ Confidence Levels & Modeled Odds

All Fights - Dashboards