UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 Predictions, Analysis, and Free Picks

Official Selections: 63% (+13.82 Units) | YTD Premium (All) Picks: 60-35 (64%)

Despite going 4-2 on the sides, we finish Saturday’s card -4.1 units following an abysmal display from Yan. The split decision loss vs. O’Malley may have really changed this guy because I did not recognize the fighter in the octagon on Saturday night. I still stand behind Dumas having a lot of potential, but it looked like too much too quick on Saturday, and when he came out wearing his headphones, I could see in his eyes we were trouble

But I digress, as we quickly shake off that L ahead of another PPV card, this one in London and going off Saturday afternoon here on the East Coast. Over our last two PPV cards, premium subscribers have gone 9-4 (+7.17 units) through 13 total selections.

Before we dive in, here is a quick reminder of how PPV cards differ in coverage and what’s included behind the paywall:

• Full access to analysis and selections for Prelims & Main Card

• Picks w/ confidence level for every single fight on all three cards

• Modeled odds for every single fight on all three cards

• Dashboards for every single fight on all three cards

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Location: O2 Arena (ENG), London, England

Early Prelims: 1:00 PM EST - ESPN+

Prelims: 3:00 PM EST - ESPN News/ESPN+

Main Card: 5:00 PM EST - ESPN+ PPV

Saturday brings the highly anticipated trilogy fight for the welterweight strap, as Kamaru Usman looks to get his belt back from Leon Edwards following a fifth-round KO defeat their last time out. In the co-main, fan-favorite Justin Gaethje returns to the octagon, looking to stop the red-hot Rafael Fiziev as both aim for a title shot later this year.

Let’s get straight into the analysis and selections I’ve worked on for this week.

Early Prelims

Jai Herbert vs. L’Udovit Klein

Since joining the UFC in July of 2020, Herbert’s results have been a mixed bag, going 2-3 with the promotion thus far, failing to put together consecutive wins. The last time we saw him in the octagon was a decision win over Kyle Nelson in July, as he returns to the octagon in desperate need of a win.

Klein has also seen a mixed bag in the UFC thus far, coming into this fight with a UFC record of 3-2, but himself on a two-fight win streak over a pair of guys who are a combined 22-4 in Mason Jones and Devonte Smith.

Other than knockdowns, Klein has the statistical metrics advantage across the board here in striking, but especially on the ground. With 44% of his fights ending via submission, I like for Klein to lean on his grappling advantage here and outwork Herbert.

Add in a seven-year age difference and a fighter in Klein in the prime of his career, and I like the Slovakian to get this one done.

Pick: L'Udovit Klein (-160 at BetUS)to risk 3.2 units

Prelims & Main Card

All Fights - Picks w/ Confidence Levels & Modeled Odds

All Fights - Dashboards (not found above)

*All odds as of the day of posting.

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