UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez Predictions, Analysis, and Free Picks
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez Predictions, Analysis, and Free Picks
YTD Premium Record: 153-104 (60%)
We finished our third straight card in the black last week, improving to 153-104 this year as summer starts to heat up inside and outside of the octagon. My schedule is back to normal and you’ll be getting the full write-ups with analysis that you always have from here on.
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Before we dive in, here is a quick recap of how PPV cards now differ in coverage and what’s included behind the paywall:
Full access to analysis and selections for my favorite plays on the Main Card
Picks w/ confidence level for every single fight on all three cards
Modeled odds for every single fight on all three cards
Dashboards for every single fight on all the main car
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Early Prelims: 6:00 PM EST - ESPN2/ESPN+
Prelims: 8:00 PM EST - ABC/ESPN/ESPN+
Main Card: 10:00 PM EST - ESPN+ PPV
Early Prelims
Kamuela Kirk vs. Esteban Rebovics
We’re jumping straight into the action with this one as a pair of featherweights off a loss will get this party started. These two were originally supposed to fight in March before a lingering injury, that has kept him out for 484 days, removed Kirl from the card last minute.
That last minute replacement, Loik Radzhabov, as a mismatch nightmare for Ribovics. as he got beat on the ground as he lost the decision and his '“0” with it.
Ribvocis will now finally get the guy he’s long-trained for, however, and I think it proves out to be a great matchup for him. The clearly better fighter on the feet, nearly doubling up Kirk everywhere, Ribovics only slightly losses the battle on the mat.
I expect Ribovics to lure Kirk into an upright fight, as he picks his spot and wins this one comfortably.
Pick: Esteban Ribovics (-145 at BetUS) to risk 1.45 units
Shannon Ross vs. Jesus Aguilar
The second fight of the night is another one I like the small favorite in, and I’m grabbing the reverse line movement on Aguilar before it goes back in the direction it started.
Aguilar made his UFC debut in February against one of the hottest prospects in the promotion Tatsuro Taira, losing in the first round via armbar. Prior to that, he had been undefeated, with all but one of his wins coming inside the distance.
As for Ross, the verdict is still very much out, having fought just twice since 2020. Losing to Vinicius Salvador in 2022’s DWCS, he was still given a contract after it surfaced he took that fight with appendicitis, but the encore didn’t go much better. We also last saw him in February, a first round TKO loss to Kleydson Rodrigues.
With edges nearly across the board, I like for Aguilar to get back in the win column here with a decisicive victory over the relative unknown in Ross.
Pick: Jesus Aguilar (-140 at BetUS) to risk 2.8 units
Cameron Saiiman vs. Terrence Mitchell
&
Jalin Turner vs. Dan Hooker
22-year-old Saaiman of South Africa will step into the octagon to take on an opponent 11 years his elder, as he looks to maintain his perfect record. An alumn of DWCS, Saiimam is 2-0 during his UFC stint this far, and draws a guy making his debut in Terrence Mitchell. Having mostly fought on Alaskan circuits, Mitchell has yet to face an opponent with more than six professional fights, and is drawing a up and coming killer in this one.
On the other side of this matchup, the fast-sinking Dan Hooker, who has now lost four of his past six fights since being named a title contender, draws Jalin Turner. If it not for a controversial split decision loss to Mateusz Gamrot in March, Turner very well could be on a fast track to a top 5 lightweight opponent.
Instead, I expect him to take his frustrations out on Hooker, and get this one done with relative pace.
Parlay: Cameron Saaiman & Jalin Turner (-150 at BetUS) to risk 1.5 units
Main
Robert Whittaker vs. Driscus du Plessis
This fight is a classic example of the need to dive deeper than only the numbers suggest. On paper, this fight appears relatively even, with du Plessis even having the slight edge on the feet in addition to the better ground game.
A peel behind the top layer of the onion, however, shows two middleweight with very much different paths to this point in their career. Starting with du Plessis, his journey to #5 in the division has come by way of largely staying out of the deep waters, with no real killers in their prime on his past hit list.
The opposite can be said for the 32-year-old Whittaker, however, as the #2 contender in the division has dismantled much of the division. Other than champ and #5 pound-for-pound Israel Adesanya, Whittaker has not lost in the UFC since 2014. Knocking off Yoel Romero (2), Brad Tavares, Jared Cannonier, Kelvin Gastelum, and Marven Vettori along the way, Whittaker has remained a constant contender.
A more-tested and well rounded fighter on the feet and between the ears, I think Whittaker sends a message with this one.
Pick: Robert Whittaker - Inside the Distance (-115 at BetUS) to risk 1.15 units
Main Card (Co-Main & Main Selections)
BMP (Beer Money Parlay) of the Week sponsored by CBD MD
Prelim Fights - Dashboards (not found above)
All Fights - Picks w/ Confidence Levels & Modeled Odds
Main Card Fights - Dashboards (not found above)
*All odds as of the day of posting.
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