UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland Predictions, Analysis, and Free Picks
YTD Premium Record: 196-134 (59%)
Aaanndddddd we’re back.
10 days in the Adriatic served me well and I’ve got another banger cooked up for us this week. We come in off of an 8-2 (80%) premium UFC 292 card where we cashed on the first eight straight fights on our way to a +6 unit evening.
Over our last seven PPV cards, premium subscribers have gone 54-27 (67%) for +23.55 units of profit!
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Location: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia
Early Prelims: 6:30 PM EST - ESPN+
Prelims: 8:00 PM EST - ESPNN/ESPN+
Main Card: 10:00 PM EST - ESPN+ PPV
Shane Young vs. Gabriel Miranda
This card starts off with one of my favorite bets of the night on a young New Zealander I think gets this friendly crowd on their feet early.
Young started his career with the UFC in 2017 with a decision loss to none other than Alexander Volkanovski; now a teammate and training partner. Picking up two wins over the next two years, Young comes into this week on a three-fight slide that includes two narrow decision losses, the second after a nearly two-year layoff.
He’ll look to get back on track against UFC newcomer Gabriel Miranda, who last fought over a year ago, losing his UFC debut to Benoit Saint-Denis in the second round. Prior to that fight, Miranda’s three prior wins in regional promotions came against guys with a combined record of 16-13.
With Young’s team City Kickboxing largely dictating this card (Izzy, Ulberg, etc.), I think Miranda was handpicked as a guy he matches up with well. Likely done inside the distance, I’ll lay the small juice here.
Pick: Shane Young (-160 at BetUS) to risk 3.2 units
Jack Jenkins vs. Chepe Mariscal
This is a pure value play for me as I have this one pretty much at a pick ‘em.
Jenkins will be one of the first Australian fighters on this card and the crowd will undoubtedly be raucous in his favor by the time the cage doors close. I don't expect Chepe to flinch, however.
This is a guy in Mariscal who took a last-minute fight against one of the UFC’s hottest prospects in June, Trevor Peek, dismantling him over a three-round decision. If not for an ungodly chin of Peek, Mariscal gets that finish 99% of the time. It’s also worth noting the win was his fourth straight, three of which came inside the distance.
As for Jenkins, who also fought most recently in June, he barely got through a 19-6 Jamall Emmers, winning via a tight split decision. He struggled on the ground throughout the fight, an area where he has a big disadvantage against Mariscal who comes in with a submission average of 1.00 per 15 minutes (vs. 0) and a takedown average of 4.00 (vs. 3.03).
With more paths to victory and on equal footing talent-wise, give me Mariscal all day.
Pick: Chepe Mariscal (+175 at BetUS) to risk 1 unit
Carlos Ulberg vs. Jung Da Un
In a light heavyweight division that is fairly shallow, Carlos Ulberg is about to be a name that cracks its rankings.
Joining the promotion in 2020 via DWCS, Ulberg lost his opening fight to Kennedy Nzechukwu before rattling off four straight wins in the time since (three ITD). His most impressive win to date came in May, a first-round finish over the 20-3 Ihor Potieria, his third straight R1 finish.
As for Jung, four straight wins to start his UFC career have been overshadowed by two consecutive losses coming into this one. One area he has struggled, and I expect him to again here, is on the feet and at range.
With Ulberg averaging a staggering 8.73 significant strikes landed and 1.85 knockdowns landed per 15 minutes, things could get out of hand fast for the South Korean in enemy territory. While Jung might be able to weather the first round, look for Ulbger to go for the kill well before the final bell.
Pick: Carlos Ulberg - Inside the Distance (-140 at BetUS) to risk 1.4 units
Main Card (Co-Main & Main Selections)
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All Fights - Picks w/ Confidence Levels & Modeled Odds
YTD Premium Record: 196-134 (59%)
Prelim & Main Card - Dashboards (not found above)
*All odds as of the day of posting.
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