UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira Predictions, Analysis, and Free Picks
YTD Premium Record: 238-161 (60%)
The UFC returns to Madison Square Garden almost exactly one year following their last stop, and if the action is even half as good as that night we’re in for a real treat. Just like UFC 294, last-minute shake-ups have altered the main card at UFC 295, as Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall step into the co-main for what will be an interim heavyweight bout.
I’m on two spots in the prelims and three on the main card for this one, as we look to stay red hot on PPVs as winter arrives…
Over our last nine PPV cards, premium subscribers have gone 67-36 (65%) for +18.3 units of profit!
Before we dive in, here is a quick recap of how PPV cards now differ in coverage and what’s included behind the paywall:
Full access to analysis and selections for my favorite plays on the Main Card
Picks w/ confidence level for every single fight on all three cards
Modeled odds for every single fight on all three cards
Dashboards for every single fight on all three cards
Let’s cash some tickets.
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Early Prelims: 6:00 PM EST - ESPN+
Prelims: 8:00 PM EST - ESPNN/ESPN+
Main Card: 10:00 PM EST - ESPN+ PPV
Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen
Following an absolute robbery on the cards vs. Paddy Pimblett and a no-contest head clash vs. Bobby Green a fight later, it’s only right the UFC rewarded Gordon with a huge card here in his hometown. Prior to those two fiascos, Gordon had turned around his career, going 5-1 in his six prior fights.
Former Olympic wrestler Mark Madsen is another veteran with a late surge in his career, racking up a 10-fight win streak prior to losing to Grand Dawson just over a year ago; the first loss of his career.
Despite being a former all-world wrestler, Madsen doesn’t have the big edges you’d expect vs. Gordon on the ground here, as “Flash” holds his own for the most part. Where I think this fight does get separation is in Gordon’s striking ability. Averaging 64% more significant strikes, Gordon is also the more fluid fighter and should be able to avoid any major blows of the grappling-happy Madsen.
Look for Gordon to lean on his experience to avoid precarious spots on the ground, and grind out a win in this one.
Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts
This doesn’t need much of a handicap, as the now -700 odds suggest, but I’ll give a brief one.
Roosevelt Roberts will be making his second stint in the UFC Saturday, having gone 1-1 on the “veterans” team on this season of The Ultimate Fighter. His first time around in the UFC spanned 2019-2021, going 3-3 with bad losses to Jim Miller and Ignacio Bahamondes.
In his re-introduction fight, he draws a killer in Rebecki, who comes into Saturday on a 15-fight win streak. Including his DWCS appearance in August 2022, Rebecki has won six of his past eight fights inside of two rounds.
Better everywhere, Rebecki gets this one done likely inside of two once again.
Pick: Parlay - Jarden Gordon/Mateusz Rebecki (-130 at BetUS) to risk 1.3 units
Steve Erceg vs. Alessandro Costa
We missed the best number on this one slightly, but the sharp money appears on our side for a fight the public cares little about.
“AstroBoy” Erceg joined the UFC over the summer with a win over a mid-journeyman in David Dvořák, a fight that didn’t inspire a ton of confidence. Looking at the numbers and having watched that fight, his first with the UFC, I don’t see what warrants this big of a price on Erceg.
For Costa, he comes in just 1-1 in his two fights in the UFC, with his loss coming against arguably the hottest prospect in the division in Amir Albazi. He also had a more impressive resume prior to joining the UFC, going 5-0 in the Lux Fight League with three ITD wins.
On the stat sheet, Costa has clear edges on the feet, including absorbing 17% fewer shots and averaging nearly 1 knockdown per 15 minutes. While Erceg does have the edge on the ground, Costa’s 91% takedown defense calms my fears there.
Having this one about even on paper, I’ll gladly take this price with Costa.
Pick: Alessandro Costa (+165 at BetUS) to risk 1 unit
Main Card (+ Co-Main & Main Selections)
All Fights - Picks w/ Confidence Levels & Modeled Odds
YTD Premium Record: 196-134 (59%)
Prelim & Main Card - Dashboards (not found above)
*All odds as of the day of posting.
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