UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan Odds, Predictions, and Free Picks
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
Prelims: 4:00 PM EST - ESPN+
Main Card: 7:00 PM EST - ESPN+
Following another 2-2 week for us at Sandhagen vs. Yadong, the UFC took a week off ahead of what will be a busy end of the year. This week, we return to the UFC Apex for a women’s strawweight bout at the top of the card. With 14 fights in total, there’s plenty of fights to parse through and I found a few for us to get down on.
Let’s dive in.
Guido Cannetti vs. Randy Costa
In what will be our first fight of the card, I think we see some fireworks right out of the gate. The heavily favored Costa comes into this fight on a two fight losing streak, the first of his career; which is worth noting has yet to provide a fide that went the distance.
On the other side, Cannetti ended a three-fight losing streak of his own in March with a first round TKO win over Kris Moutinho.
A closer look at the metrics show Costa has a 2x advantage in strikes landed, and nearly 2x knockdowns landed. While he struggles on the ground, he’s done an excellent job of keeping fights upright and I don’t see that being an issue here against an aging Cannetti.
Speaking of age, this fight more than checks our age factor box (more than six years, younger fighter wins 60%), as Costa is 14 years the junior.
Pick: Randy Costa Inside the Distance (-120 at BetOnline.ag) to risk 2 units
Jessica Penne vs. Tabatha Ricci
This is another bet that boldy checks our age factor box, as Ricci (27) comes into this fight 12 years younger than Penne (39). Ricci also comes into this fight having won seven of her past eight fights, including her last two straight.
While the striking metrics are fairly even between the two, Ricci holds a massive edge in grappling, with a more han 2x takedown average per 15 minutes. Ricci also holds the 2x edge in takedown accuracy at 45%.
We’re chasing some reverse line movement here but I think Ricci is the right side at this price.
Pick: Tabatha Ricci (-200 at BetOnline.ag) to risk 2 units
Raoni Barcelos vs. Trevin Jones
With six (Barcelos) and four (Jones) fights in the UFC and both around 200 days out from their last fight, I see the metrics as the perfect author of this story. While Jones has got some love in the market since this opened, likely due to his last two losses being deemed as “good” losses, I’m not so convicned.
While Barcelos also comes into this fight on a two-fight losing streak, he holds edges here across the board including 2x in sigfincant strikes landed. He also is defending himself at a 20% higher clip in both striking and takedowns, and I think we see that be the difference here.
Pick: Raoni Barcelos (-225 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
Mackenzie Dern vs. Yan Xiaonan
I think we’re getting a ton of value here on Yan, who despite coming into this fight losing her last two, had won six straight (all in the UFC) prior to that. Her loss in May of 2021 came to Carla Esparza, the current strawweight champion, and her last loss came via a questionable split decision (Marina Rodriguez) in March.
On the other side, Dern also has a loss to Rodriguez in her last two fights, a unanimous decision in October 2021.
And then there’s the metrics.
Coming into this fight, Yan holds edges nearly across the board including in significant striking and accuracy, striking defense, takedown average per 15 minutes (2x) and takedown accuracy (7x). In what I have as an even fight on paper, I’ll take the plus money with Yan.
Pick: Yan Xiaonan (+200 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
BMP of the Week (Beer Money Parlay)**
Brendan Allen + Tabatha Ricci + Xiaonan Yan + John Castaneda (+1229 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Randy Costa Inside the Distance (-120 at BetOnline.ag) to risk 2 units
Tabatha Ricci (-200 at BetOnline.ag) to risk 2 units
Raoni Barcelos (-225 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
Yan Xiaonan (+200 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2 units
*All odds as of the day of posting.
**Parlays are the fastest way to lose money in sports betting. That said there is nothing more fun. Have at it, but only with our weekly beer
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