UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac Predictions, Analysis, and Free Picks
Official Selections: 60% (+8.45 Units) | YTD Premium Picks: 68% (+15.75 units)
Going 3-0 on our straight bets at UFC 283, we gave it all back on prop bets; two of which in Nunes and Andrade I’m still beside myself on how we didn’t get there. As we move forward, I’ll be adjusting with a focus on straight bets until we get back the units we pissed away on these past two cards.
It is worth noting that for premium subscribers receiving picks for every single fight, we went 12-3 on the night, moving to 18-7 (68%, +15.75 units) on the year after consecutive winning weeks. Here’s a snapshot of what that looks like each week for this interested:
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
Prelims: 10:00 PM EST - ESPN+
Main Card: 1:00 AM EST - ESPN+
Sergey Spivac will finally get his crack at UFC veteran Derrick Lewis on Saturday following a November 2022 bout that was canceled last minute as Lewis was hospitalized with a non-COVID illness. This card will feature four finals from the Road to UFC, an online series showcasing the top fighters in Asia; hence the abnormally late start time.
The official selection volume will be lighter than usual given I’m staying (mostly) clear of these Road to UFC title fights, but there are still a few spots I like on this card.
Let’s dive in.
Toshiomi Kazama vs. Rinya Nakamura
The only Road to the UFC fight I’m getting involved with, I think Nakamura has a bigger edge in this fight than the market currently has set. A perfect 5-0 since turning professional in 2021, Nakamura is a World Champion wrestler who quit the sport in 2020 to focus full-time on MMA.
Having gone back and watched both of his Road to UFC bouts, both first-round finishes, Nakamura is as calm as they come on his feet, pouncing at the first sign of weakness to close things out.
His opponent, Kazama, also competed on the Road to UFC, winning via unanimous decision. A closer look, however, shows Kazama fought a guy named Keremuaili Maimaitituoheti (exactly), who at 31, has a record of 27-12. In Kazama’s last three fights (2-1) before Saturday, his opponents have a record of just 37-20.
Better everywhere in spades, Nakamura should have no problem finishing this one inside the distance.
Pick: Rinya Nakamura - Inside the Distance (-130 at BetUS) to risk 2.6 units
Yukasku Kinoshita vs. Adam Fugitt
Making a splash on this season’s DWCS, Kinoshita is on the main card for his UFC debut for a reason; the UFC sees star potential. Still in search of their first Japanese star, they might have just found it in the 22-year-old whose only loss to this point came via DQ. Through 11 amateur and professional fights, only one has even reached the third round, and none have gone to decision.
After drawing a killer in his first fight with Michael Morales (3rd round TKO), the 34-year-old journeyman Fugitt is once again being fed to the wolves in this one. While he may eventually find a win in the UFC, it won’t be here against a guy the UFC has on a fast track for PPVs.
Pick: Yukasku Kinoshita (-275 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 5.5 units
Jung Da Un vs. Devin Clark
The market disagrees here, coming down from its opener of -250, but I like Da Un in this one. The last time we saw him in the octagon was a first-round KO loss to Dustin Jacoby and his first loss since 2015. Since joining the UFC in 2019, Da Un has amassed a record of 4-1-1, picking up impressive first-round wins vs. Mike Rodriguez and Kennedy Nzechukwu along the way.
Clark, who also comes in off a loss, was dominated by Azamat Mrzakanov for three rounds before being finished TKO late in the third. The defeat was his third in four fights, bringing his UFC record to 6-7 since joining the promotion in 2016.
With plenty of stats to compare, Da Un has the edge across the board, including some significant ones in knockdown average per 15 minutes (3x), submission average per 15 minutes (3x), and takedown accuracy (2x).
Having more paths to victory with a more well-rounded game, I like Da Un to get it done here.
Pick: Jung Da Un (-215 at BetUS) to risk 4.4 units
Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak
It’s always a shame when guys can’t seem to give it up, even when the writing’s on the wall, but I think that’s what we’re seeing here with Lewis. When these two were supposed to fight the first time in November, Lewis was pulled just hours from walking into the octagon for a “non-COVID, non-weight cut” issue that still hasn’t been made clear.
Now slimmed down, he’ll be looking for his first win since December 2021, as he looks to avoid his fourth loss in five fights.
Spivac, who at 28 is 10 years Lewis’ junior, comes into this one having won five of his past six, losing only to Tom Aspinall since the summer of 2020.
And then there are the metrics.
As of Saturday, Spivac holds edges across the board, including significant ones in takedown average (7x) and significant strikes landed (1.5x).
Sitting just outside the heavyweight top 10 at #12, look for a statement win here to put Spivac firmly inside of it.
Pick: Sergey Spivac (-225 at BetUS) to risk 2.25 units
BMP of the Week (Beer Money Parlay) sponsored by BetUS
Rinya Nakamura - Inside the Distance (-130 at BetUS) to risk 2.6 units
Yukasku Kinoshita (-275 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 5.5 units
Jung Da Un (-220 at BetUS) to risk 4.4 units
Sergey Spivak (-225 at BetUS) to risk 2.25 units
All Fights - Picks w/ Confidence Levels & Modeled Odds
YTD Record: 18-7 (68%, +15.75 units)*
*assumes all bets were one unit
All Fights - Dashboards (not found above)
*All odds as of the day of posting.
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