UFC 281: Odds, Predictions, and Free Picks
UFC 281: Odds, Predictions, and Free Picks
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Early Prelims: 6:00 PM EST - ESPN+
Prelims: 8:00 PM EST - ESPN News/ESPN+
Main Card: 10:00 PM EST - ESPN+ PPV
We start off November in the red, but we may have been a part of the first (known) fixed UFC fight since PASPA was repealed in 2018. While you can read the details of the investigation for yourself, after watching the fight again a few times my only question is this:
If it was simply leaked injury news that caused the line to jump right before the fight, why would Minner’s only plan of attack be to aggressively use his injured leg?
FYI: Minner’s coach is former UFC fighter James Krause, who also happens to run a public (subscription service) UFC betting syndicate. The timing also coincides just two weeks after the UFC bans those with “insider information” from betting on fights.
But I digress, as we’re on to one of the best cards in recent years with two title fights at the top, and Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler headlining the best of the rest. Let’s take a deeper look at where I see the value ahead of this one, one I’ll be in attendance for up the road at Madison Square Garden.
Early Prelims
Carlos Ulberg vs. Nick Negumereanu
We’re going against the line movement in this one, but I think the oddsmakers who opened Ulberg around -200 were more accurate than where it currently sits. The former professional rugby player comes into this fight with edges across the board, including some big ones in significant strikes landed per minute (2.5x), significant striking accuracy (.5x), takedown accuracy (3x), and takedown defense (.6x).
Ulberg has also recovered nicely from his first professional loss in March 2021, a 2nd round KO loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu, having won both fights decisively since.
Negumereanu’s steam isn’t surprising, as he also has just one professional loss, a March 2019 defeat (unanimous decision) vs. Saparbeg Safarov; racking up four straight wins in the time since. Two of those results were split decisions, however, the latest vs. Nzechukwu in a fight that could have gone either way.
I think all of the value lies with Ulberg here.
Pick: Carlos Ulberg (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2.5 units
Matt Frevola vs. Ottman Azaitar
With just two fights under the UFC banner, I think Azaitar is flying under the radar still; but this should be the last time we see him at this price tag. A perfect 13-0, Azaitar has finished all but one of his professional fights inside of the distance, with four of his past five coming in the very first round via KO/TKO.
Frevola, on the other hand, comes into this bout 3-3-1 in his time with the UFC, having lost two of his past three.
And then there are the major edges Azaitar holds in knockdown average (3x), sig. strikes landed per minute (2.5x), less absorbed strikes (2x), and takedown defense (2.5x).
The one area that is concerning is Azaitar’s 2+ years outside of the octagon, having been cut by the UFC in June 2021 for COVID-related protocol violations (wild story actually) ahead of the first time this fight was scheduled at UFC 257. Because of that, I’m cutting back on the units I’d otherwise risk on this fight, but still think the other edges are large enough to overcome the ring rust.
Pick: Ottoman Azaitar (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook) to risk 2.2 units
Prelims
Andre Petroski vs. Wellington Turman
Petroski holds the edge in every single fighting metric that we look at each card, and I think he should be more in the -300 range than where he currently sits. Through nine professional fights, he also has a 100% finish rate, with three of his past four coming via submission.
As for Turman, grappling will likely be his only path to victory, as eight of his 18 professional wins have come via submission, with his last two losses coming via KO/TKO. While I’m inclined to take Petroski inside the distance, I’m concerned Turman turns this into a ground and pound that eats up a ton of clock.
Lay the juice and take the clear better fighter in Petroski.
Pick: Andre Petroski (-210 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2.1 units
Main Card
Frankie Edgar vs. Chris Gutierrez
I’m just as big a sucker for a feel-good story as anyone else, but I just can’t see a scenario where a 40-year-old Frankie Edgar wins this fight (his last). Having won just one fight since the start of 2019, a split decision win vs. Pedro Munhoz in August 2020, Edgar has lost four of his past five, with his last two coming via KO/TKO.
Now, he draws a fighter in Chris Gutierrez who hasn’t lost in seven straight fights, his first seven in the UFC. Coming into this fight, Gutierrez (31) also holds large edges in knockdown average (5x) and sig. strike accuracy, and while he does trail in metrics on the ground, his 73% takedown defense makes me feel better about those.
Add in the nine-year age advantage and the fact Edgar hasn’t fought in over a year (ring rust factor), and I like for Gutierrez to get this one done; likely inside of the distance.
Pick: Chris Gutierrez (-215 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 4.3 units
Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler
This is certainly a contrarian play, but I don’t think this fight ends as quickly as many people think it will. While both of these guys have finished ~76% of their opponents inside the distance, a closer look shows that when they fought guys on their own level, they typically go deep.
For Poirier, his two losses since 2016 were against certified GOATs in Khabib and Charles Oliveira, with his two most impressive wins (vs. Max Holloway and Dan Hooker) both going the distance. His third and fourth-round KO/TKO wins vs. Gaethje and Pettis also lasted more than 2.5 rounds.
As for Chandler, his fight history reads similarly. Throwing out the two fights that were well above (Oliveira) and below (Ferguson) his skill level, Chandler went the distance with Gaethje. His first-round KO vs. Dan Hooker in January of 2021 does give me pause, but I don’t see Poirier making that kind of mistake in this spot.
Though neither of these guys is exactly old, both Poirier (33) and Chandler (36) desperately need a win here to remain in the top five and set themselves up for one final serious run at a lightweight belt. Look for a more conservative than expected approach to start, as this one goes deep.
Pick: Poirier/Chandler Over 2.5 Rounds (+140 at BetOnline.ag) to risk 1.5 units
Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira
The main event of the evening will feature two fighters facing off for the third time, but for the first in an MMA capacity. The first two times in kickboxing, Pereira won the second via a vicious KO, the only of Adesanya’s career. Since losing his first-ever MMA fight in 2015, Pereira has rattled off six straight wins (3-0 in UFC), five of which have ended via KO/TKO.
Pereira will certainly be taking a step up in this contest, however, as he draws the #2 pound-for-pound fighter in the world in Adesanya. Despite his past eight fights being title fights (and defenses), Adesanya has finished just two of them inside of the distance, as he tends to start slow and dictate the later rounds by physically and tactically dominating.
I don’t see his opponent allowing for that in this one, however.
Pereira also comes into this one with edges in knockdown average, sig. strike landed per minute (2x), and sig. strike accuracy (.5x). In a fight I have much closer to even on paper, I’m taking the underdog and sprinkling some extra on him to get it done inside the distance.
Pick: Alex Pereira (+155 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 1 unit & Inside the Distance (+275 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk .5 unit
BMP of the Week (Beer Money Parlay)
Michael Trizano + Dominick Reyes + Dan Hooker + Carla Esparza + Alex Pereira (+5019 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Recap
Carlos Ulberg (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2.5 units
Ottoman Azaitar (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook) to risk 2.2 units
Andre Petroski (-210 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 2.1 units
Chris Gutierrez (-215 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 4.3 units
Poirier/Chandler Over 2.5 Rounds (+140 at BetOnline.ag) to risk 1.5 units
Alex Pereira (+155 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk 1 unit
Alex Pereira - Inside the Distance (+275 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to risk .5 unit
*All odds as of the day of posting.
Unsure about something you see above? Check out the FAQ to likely find your answer or reach out on Twitter.