UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 Predictions, Analysis, and Free Picks

YTD Premium Record: 171-114 (60%)

Jul 27, 2023

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UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 (Main Card) (7/29/23) - Stream the UFC Game - Watch ESPN

We are coming off a UFC 290 PPV where we finished 10-3 (77%) to finish up +6.25 units betting every single fight. For those new here or considering a premium subscription:

Over our last five PPV cards, premium subscribers have gone 60% (+11.70 units) through 41 total selections.

Before we dive in, here is a quick recap of how PPV cards now differ in coverage and what’s included behind the paywall:

Full access to analysis and selections for my favorite plays on the Main Card
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Let’s cash some tickets this weekend.

Location: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT

Early Prelims: 6:30 PM EST - ESPN2/ESPN+

Prelims: 8:00 PM EST - ABC/ESPN/ESPN+

Main Card: 10:00 PM EST - ESPN+ PPV

Prelims

Matt Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic

We’re going against the grain in this one, but I think the wrong guy is getting all the love in this matchup. For starters, the one loss of Medic’s career came against Jailin Turner (via submission) in 2021, and we just saw the caliber of fighter Turner is at UFC 290. Submissions are also not something Medic will have to concern himself with here, as Semelsberger has just one in his career and none in the UFC.

Joining the UFC in 2020, Semelsberger has been active, but has a mixed bag of results at just 6-3, and no fights against high-level competition.

In terms of the metrics, Medic has the advantage of almost everywhere, and if he can keep this one on the feet, I think has a real chance to end things early. At a minimum, I have this one much closer to even than the odds suggest.

Pick: Uros Medic (+160 at BetUS) to risk 1 unit

Roman Kopylov vs. Claudio Ribeiro

Despite both being in their 30s, neither of these guys has a ton of fights and I think this is a scenario where the market hasn’t quite caught on to either one quality.

Starting with Ribeiro, he joined the UFC via DWCSlast year, going 1-1 in his two fights under the banner officially. Losing to Razak Alhassan via TKO to start the year, he got back in the W column in May vs. Joseph Holmes, also a UFC newcomer.

Kopylov also is .500 (2-2) in the UFC, but comes in on a two-fight winning streak, finishing Di Chirico and Soriano in his last two fights. His win in January over Soriano was especially impressive, taking out a guy that many had as a sleeper future contender in the middleweight division.

With a combined 95% finishing rate between the two, I think the market has this one correct with Kopylov as the heavy favorite, particularly when looking at his opponent's history. In a fight that likely ends on the feet, I like Kopylov to get this one done.

Pick: Roman Kopylov - Inside the Distance (+110 at BetUS) to risk 1 unit

Main

Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green

Tony Ferguson coming out this week and saying he’s in the prime of his career, even amongst UFC fighters, might be the craziest thing I have ever heard. Currently on a five-fight slide, he’ll keep fighting as long as the UFC keeps booking him, and likely continue to stack losses.

His last two wins came against aging Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis, but he gets a different kind of fighter in this one. Though Bobby Green isn’t exactly in the prime of his career either, his last two losses come against killers in Islam Makhachev (last-minute matchup) and Drew Dober.

Green also comes into this one with edges nearly across the board, and even in grappling, Green has a better takedown average and takedown defense. I think he should be an even bigger favorite than he’s currently listed as.

All that to say, I think we see Green starch him in the first or second round.

Pick: Bobby Green - Inside the Distance (+145 at BetUS) to risk 1 unit

Stephen Thompson vs. Michel Pereira

Speaking of aging, I thought we were seeing the beginning of the end for Wonderboy, losing consecutive fights to Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad in his only two fights of 2021. His fourth-round win over Kevin Holland in December, however, got him back on track, but I don’t think he’s worthy of this big of a number.

The market seems to agree.

Opening at +170, we’re grabbing Pereira here at +140, and a guy in the prime of his athletic career (29) vs. Thompson who just turned 40 years old.

Pereira also comes in having won his past five fights, and though a journeyman in the UFC, appears to finally be coming into his potential. Add in the fact he has edges across the board in the metrics department, and I think the wrong guy is favored in this one.

Pick: Michel Pereira (+140 at BetUS) to risk 1 unit