UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon Predictions, Analysis, and Free Picks
YTD Premium Record: 91-63 (59%)
Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
Prelims: 4:30 PM EST - ESPN+
Main Card: 7:00 PM EST - ESPN+
The pendulum began its swing back in our direction last week, sweeping the two fights that actually had results to finish the card 2-0 (+2 units). It’s a shame we didn’t get to see in full what would’ve likely been the fight of the night between Bobby Green and Jaredn Gordon, but we’ll take the W’s and move on to the next.
The results brought our record to 57% (+25.23 units), with a $100 bettor now up over $2,500 since we started this thing.
Premium subscribers who received a selection on every single fight went 7-4 on the night, finishing the card +4.03 units.
Our attention now turns to the fourth card of the month, which is as expected somewhat of a dud ahead of next week’s massive UFC 288 card headlined by the return of Henry Cejudo. That doesn’t mean I haven’t found some spots I like.
Let’s get into it.
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Josh Quinlan vs. Trey Waters
I had Quinlan after seeing him on DWCS in the fall of 2021, and his UFC debut nearly a year later did not disappoint. Officially getting ruled a no-contest after a positive drug test, Quinlan made light work of Logan Urban (R1 TKO) on DWCS before doing the same to Jason Witt (R1 KO) in his first official fight with the promotion.
Turning pro after a 6-0 amateur stint that saw him finish 5 of those fights inside two rounds (all via KO/TKO), Quinlan is now 6-0 as a pro, with all six finishes coming inside the distance.
As for his opponent, Trey Waters will step in on short notice to make his UFC debut, after an injury forced Quinlan’s original opponent Ange Loosa to withdraw just last week. An LFA welterweight champ, Waters only loss came in his DWCS fight in September, a first-round loss to Gabriel Bonfim.
With 93% of these two’s fights coming inside the distance, violence is all but certain in this one. With edges everywhere except for grappling, I like for the physicalness of Quinlan to keep this one on the feet, where he likely finishes Waters, who just fought on April 14th, inside of three rounds.
Pick: Josh Quinlan (-180 at FanDuel Sportsbook) to risk 3.6 units
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
When this fight was announced I instantly liked Cortes-Acosta in this matchup, and even thought he could potentially be a slight favorite. Opening as high as +155, the market agreed with me, but only slightly, as “Salsa Boy” has moved to around +150.
A former boxer out of the Dominican Republic, Cortes-Acosta made his MMA debut in July of 2021 and has been busy since, winning five straight fights across LFA and Bellator before getting his DWCS break over the summer. He didn’t disappoint, TKO’ing Danilo Suzart in the very first round to earn his contract in statement fashion.
Since then, he’s taken care of two UFC veterans Jared Vanderaa and Chase Sherman, but will certainly be taking a step up in this one.
Originally joining the UFC via The Ultimate Fighter in 2014, Rogerio de Lima has fought all of the mid-level heavyweights of his day, and with mixed results. 5-4 over his last nine fights, Rogerio’s two wins since the summer of 2021 have come against two guys who are over 40 years old, one of which (Ben Rothwell) is no longer even in the UFC.
Cortes-Acosta, however, is still getting better with every fight at just 32 years old and nine fights into his MMA career. If he can keep this one upright, which I expect Rogerio de Lima to be okay with at this point in his career, look for him to lean on the 7.81 significant strikes per minute he’s currently producing.
Pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+150 at FanDuel Sportsbook) to risk 1 unit
Rodopho Vieira vs. Cody Brundage
This is a play based on the number I found over at BetUS, which I think offers a ton of value. First and foremost, at a combined 94% finish rate between these two; this one is ending early.
I’m not entirely convinced Vieira is worthy of a -240 price tag, either. Well known for this prowess on the ground with an 87% finish rate via submission, Brundage actually has the edge on the ground with a 1.70 submission average (vs. .97) and a 46% takedown accuracy (vs. 27%).
Having lost two of his last three with the UFC, I thought Vieira was exposed in his decision loss last summer to Chris Curtis, getting outstriked all night and losing accordingly on the judge’s scorecards.
That should be an issue vs. Brundage, who while can hold his own on the ground, prefers to stand and bang with 50% of his career wins coming via KO/TKO. The fight vs. Curtis also followed a pattern of Vieira taking shots, and he comes into this one with nearly double the amount of absorbed shots per minute at 5.09 (vs. 2.88).
With more paths to get that early finish, I think Brundage doesn’t just hold his own here but finds victory early.
Pick: Cody Brundage - Inside the Distance (+350 at BetUS) to risk 1 unit
BMP of the Week (Beer Money Parlay)
Hailey Cowan + Cody Durden + Michael Oleksiejcuk + Ricky Simon (+3393 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Josh Quinlan (-180 at FanDuel Sportsbook) to risk 3.6 units
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+150 at FanDuel Sportsbook) to risk 1 unit
Cody Brundage - Inside the Distance (+350 at BetUS) to risk 1 unit
All Fights - Picks w/ Confidence Levels & Modeled Odds
YTD Premium Record: 91-63 (59%)
*All bets are one unit
All Fights - Dashboards (not found above)
*All odds as of the day of posting.
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