UFC London: Aspinall vs. Tybura Predictions, Analysis, and Free Picks
YTD Premium Record: 163-107 (60%)
UFC 290 was a cash cow for those of you who took part, as premium subscribers went 10-3 on the night to finish +6.25 units. I couldn’t find anything last week I remotely liked, so we took off our first week in over a year and are geared up for this one.
Let’s dive straight into it.
Location: O2 Arena (ENG), London, England
Prelims: 12:00 PM EST - ESPN+
Main Card: 3:00 PM EST - ESPN+
Chris Duncan vs. Yanal Ashmoz
Yanal Ashmouz makes his second walk to the octagon Saturday night, as the undefeated Israeli looks to pick up his second win of 2023. His UFC debut left little doubt, finishing the previously undefeated Sam Patterson in the first round via TKO.
The win, the seventh of his career, was his sixth professional finish as he looks to pick up #8 on here vs. Chris Duncan.
Fighting out of Scotland, Duncan also has just one fight in the UFC (on that same UFC 286 card), his a much less decisive split decision over Omar Morales. His second decision in his last three fights, Ducan is a well-rounded fighter who doesn’t excel at much of anything.
With advantages across the board, but especially on the feet, I like for the “Red Fox” to impose himself early and largely have his way in this one. Getting him at plus money feels like a ton of value, and I’ll gladly grab this price before it dips below even.
Pick: Yanal Ashmouz (+120 at BetUS) to risk 1 unit
Davey Grant vs. Daniel Marcos
I’m on another guy here in Marcos that has just one fight in the UFC, his also an early finish against an undefeated fighter in Saimon Oliveira (January). Looking back at his fight history, Marcos has made it a career taking people’s 0’s, with all 14 of his professional wins coming against (at the time) undefeated guys.
As for Grant, the 37-year-old comes into this fight a UFC journeyman and certainly on the tail end of his career. Joining the UFC via The Ultimate Fighter in 2013, Marcos has seen a mixed bag of results, going 6-4 to this point during his tenure with the promotion.
The only edge he has in this one is on the ground, and facing a guy in Marcos with a 88% takedown defense, I see that angle largely eliminated. I like for the younger and hungrier Marcos to get this one done.
Pick: Daniel Marcos (-150 at BetUS) to risk 1.5 units
Lerone Murphy vs. Joshua Culibao
One of the many Englishman on this card in their backyard, I think Murphy is largely flying under the radar as one of the best bets on it. As the first fight on the main card, O2 is going to be rocking for him, and though his number has shrunk since opening at -225, I think it was about right when it was posted.
Joining the UFC in 2019 with a draw at UFC 242, Murphy has rattled off four straight wins, beating undefeated fighters in all four. Two of those wins came inside the distance, with his most impressive coming via knee vs. Makwan Amirkhani in the second round.
As for Culibao, he also comes into this one on a tear having won three straight fights since losing his UFC debut in 2020.
Taking a closer look at the numbers though, Murphy is not only the better striker but has clear edges nearly across the board on the ground. With more paths to victory and the home crowd behind him, I had Murphy much closer to the -225 opening number and will gladly grab this price.
Pick: Lerone Murphy (-140 at BetUS) to risk 1.40 units
Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura
Many believe if not for a knee injury vs. Curtis Blaydes last summer, the conversation at heavyweight looks very different with a healthy Tom Aspinall. I am certainly one of those people. On a run prior to the injury that included first-round knockouts of Alan Baudot, Sergei Spivac, and Alexander Volkov, Aspinall is one of the best strikers in this division and very much in the prime of his athletic career.
Tybura, on the otherside, is seven years his senior and I believe largely being fed to the wolves in this one. While he doesn’t have recent wins against Ivanov and Romanov, they’re nowhere near the quality that Aspinall has rattled off.
Add in significant edges across the board, and I think Aspinall largely picks his spot here as he tees off on Tybura early and often.
Pick: Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO (-150 at BetUS) to risk 1.50 units
Yanal Ashmouz (+120 at BetUS) to risk 1 unit
Daniel Marcos (-150 at BetUS) to risk 1.5 units
Lerone Murphy (-140 at BetUS) to risk 1.40 units
Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO (-150 at BetUS) to risk 1.50 units
Prelim Fights - Dashboards (not found above)
All Fights - Picks w/ Confidence Levels & Modeled Odds
Main Card Fights - Dashboards (not found above)
*All odds as of the day of posting.
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